Forex Trading Systems The ultimate forex edge an Unbiased Review

As you know, I regularly review automated trading systems for the forex market but I have recently been asked by a website reader to review the ultimate forex edge trading system. Of course, as my website is called "reviewing everything forex" I am also interested in the review of regular trading systems and signal services so I decided to give this a go and review the ultimate forex edge trading system.

The forex ultimate edge website seemed to be just another cheesy marketing website that attempts to bond with the websites visitor by appealing to his likely current situation. The author first describes how he was broke and desperate (as many are likely to be when entering the website) and then he says that he saw the light and started to profit from forex trading. The story of course, has just no back to it, the trader does not mention the actual name of the company that allegedly gave him the chance to trade a 10 million dollar account or any information on any managed account or account he traded before or after this.

As a matter of fact, this is the most important thing. We have this guy telling us he can walk the walk and trade the forex market profitably but where is the proof ? Where are his account statements with all the profits he has been able to make with his trading system ? If anyone was going to learn a trading system from someone they would want him to show his trading statements right away. Why should you be different ? If he is claiming he can do something then he shouldnt have any hard time proving it if it is actually true. Now if it is, Ill be glad to take a look at the new evidence and redo this review to reflect that, but up until now, its just bunch of made up graphs and blablabla anyone can talk.

Being an account manager or selling a trading system is not supposed to be about being able to talk BS but it is supposed to be about being able to convince people through evidence and logic that your system is able to do something good with their money. Of course, up until now, this website is just a bunch of non sense which I would never consider worth buying.

If you would like to learn about automated trading systems and how there is the possibility to trade profitably with automated trading with real profit and draw down expectations please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 11.15 0 komentar

Forex Manual Trading Systems Forex Cash Factory an Unbiased Review

A few days ago, a newsletter subscriber asked me if I could review a manual trading system called "forex cash factory". On todays post I will do an analysis about this system taking into account the evidence provided on the products website. I will also give my opinion about its usefulness and how much I think it could help manual traders become long term profitable. Finally, after doing all my analysis I will tell you if I believe this product is worth buying or testing or if it is just another product which is filled with promises but fails to deliver any realistic results.

The website starts with nothing but bold claims about the system being able to "pump" tens of thousands of dollars every week out of the market. After this we see that the forex cash factory website is nothing more than a few thousands words of a guy telling us to buy something just because it can make us rich. The webpage is definitely geared towards people who are new to the forex market and are definitely looking for a way to get money quickly.

The author of the forex cash factory fails to give many important descriptions about his system. There is absolutely no mention of the profit or the risk targets of the system, no mention of the money management used when trading, no mention of the characteristics of the strategy, etc. Why would anyone buy a trading system they know nothing about ? The guy fails to explain if his system relies on scalping, swing trading, long term trading, etc. There is simply almost no information abou tthe actual trading system included on the website. The author could have written the webpage without any product because product description is extremely limited.

There is also absolutely no evidence about the profitability of the system or its ability to even produce one USD on the forex market. The thing I find the strangest is that the guy does mention on his website that the system WAS actually tested on a real account for three years before selling it. Why in the world doesnt this guy show this evidence of profitability if it does exist in reality ? Come on ! Who would refrain from posting such evidence if it is obvious that it would increase sales enormously ? No one would ! The fact remains that until the evidence is not posted, it may as well not exist, there is no reason to believe it does.

Then what about all those testimonials ? I can also sit down and makeup whatever testimonial I want, testimonials do not mean anything, specially when a "testimonial" is just a bunch of text there. All the testimonials could have been written by the author, there is no doubt about that. What you should ask for when looking for a trading system, either manual or automated, is not simply a 2000 long sales page telling you how good your life will be after you make the purchase but solid evidence showing that the system has been profitable in the past and has a high like hood of remaining profitable in the future. Why is this evidence never shown for manual trading systems ? Well, mainly because the systems usually only work for one thing, bringing the author sales profits.

In the light of the total lack of even a general description of the system and the absolute lack of any performance record of the system when there is even mentioning that such a record exists (which means that the author is purposefuly hiding it or making that up) I consider the cash factory manual trading system not worth buying and testing. If you want to know more about trading system and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable automated systems with realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 19.30 0 komentar

Targetting the JPY Crosses Why it is so Hard to Develop Long Term Profitable Systems for These Instruments

If you have been interested in system development and you have been following my achievements for a while you would have certainly noticed that I have never developed a system to target any JPY crosses. The reason why I havent done so is not because I havent tried but because the development of long term profitable systems for them has proved to be extremely hard. On todays post I want to share with you my experience with these instruments and why I have had a very hard time attempting to develop strategies that profit from these very volatile forex trading instruments. I will explain to you why price action based strategies simply do not seem to work for these pairs and what other alternative solutions I have put in practice to develop a long term profitable system that is able to diversify our trading with these JPY beasts.

The JPY crosses are a series of instruments in the forex market that pair the Japanese Yen with a non-USD currency. These instruments are most commonly EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY but other more exotic pairs like NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY are also available. These pairs have some very notable characteristics which set them apart from regular forex pairs like the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. What makes them so special is the extremely large daily volatility and their overall lack of liquidity (when compared to major pairs). Developing a system for these babies is no easy ride and I will just show you why this is the case.

System development is based on the finding of exploitable market inefficiencies. Price behaves in a certain way that allows you to enter a trade with a high probability of success under very diverse market conditions. Lack of liquidity introduces a blur to this image and therefore it becomes very hard to find inefficiencies because price is "all over the place" so to speak. Lack of liquidity makes different price patterns appear on very different market situations signaling many different things taking your mathematical expectancy away from positive territory. So if you try to trade a given candlestick pattern you find that the pattern sometimes leads to where you want to go and sometimes it doesnt - like it always happens - but the lack of liquidity increases the number of times it leads to where you dont want to go significantly, to the point where you lose all the edge you would have gained from it.

For this very reason, the development of price based strategies on the JPY crosses is often not a good idea since you are very vulnerable to the "blur" introduced by the general lack of liquidity of these instruments. Systems that have success on very varied currency pairs - like Teyacanani - simply fail to profit on JPY crosses due to the fact that their signals simply dont lead anywhere. After analyzing 10 years of price data for the EUR/JPY I have found that price action is extremely hard to predict due to the fact that lack of liquidity makes it follow a very random walk in the short and perhaps medium term. This is the exact effect you would expect from lack of liquidity since crowd behavior becomes less representative and more individual human behavior - which is just random - starts to show through the charts.

What is the solution then ? Since price action based strategies seemed to fail to bring positive results on these currency pairs for me, I decided to change into indicator based strategies that allowed me to remove the "noise" from the market more effectively. The idea here is that JPY crosses do follow crowd behavior in the long term so introducing a strategy that averages data and gives me an idea of where things are going would most likely prove more effective. This is in fact the case and indicator based strategies do show positive mathematical expectancy values with less effort. However, the fact that the currency pairs lack liquidity makes the eventual profitability of these strategies much lower than what can be achieved on the regular USD paired instruments.

In the end it becomes obvious that lack of liquidity complicates any mechanical profitability to a large extent since market inefficiencies become far more scarce and difficult to capture. Lack of liquidity makes the effect of smaller parties larger and therefore the movements are just more random overall. Crowd behavior becomes less significant and therefore we lose a significant edge that we are able to use on major currency pairs. Many of you may think that this "randomness" constitutes an inefficiency on its own but the fact is that it does not since you arent able to predict when it will appear with a statistical advantage. If you assume that JPY crosses are random and attempt to profit from their volatility you will fail when they trend and vice versa. The problem is not the character of the instruments but the fact that lack of liquidity does not allow us to have a positive statistical edge on most strategies.

Does this mean that we wont have any mechanical JPY-cross trading strategy ? No, it just means that it will be much harder to develop and probably profit and risk targets wont be as good as for regular systems based on more liquid currency pairs. As a matter of fact I am currently developing some strategies to address these JPY crosses. Hopefully I will be able to tackle this beast and - in the end - we will have some likely long term profitable systems for our JPY trading friends :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to design and develop your own trading systems with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 21.45 0 komentar

Choosing Among Online Forex Trading Systems

Forex is not really new in the financial market. In fact, it is not only known by big players in the world, but also by small organizations and individuals lately. Now, forex is no longer ruled by the big players; people from all walks of life can actually do forex trading.

Before plunging in trading, you must know certain terms that are used in the market. One important term is the forex trading system. What it is all about, and what is its use.

The birth of the internet has changed the face of forex trading. Because of this very valuable tool, the FX market is easier to access, making it more convenient to small players. And all most importantly, all of this happens in real time, which is why online traders can actually make quick decisions regarding their trade.

Forex trading system is ergonomic and intuitive. All the necessary functions involved in forex trading can be done from your main screen. You can place a trade and leave an order. And not only that, you can also conduct margin analysis and position/order management.

There are many companies, located in different countries, which can provide you with a forex trading system. The very first thing that a system usually involves is investment of money. Some companies would require you to invest as low as five dollars while some can ask for as high as five hundred dollars for upfront payments. Forex systems greatly vary, and it depends largely on the company offering such service.

With the system, you can purchase companies, stocks, and make investments even in other places. You can enhance your wealth and personal preferences by investing in a forex trading system. By investing a certain amount of money, you can make even more money in the future. The forex trading system that many traders know about is built among leading companies, investors, and worldwide currencies.

The trading system can be offline or online. You are free to choose which system will work best for you. However, online trading systems are gaining more and more popularity because you have easy access to the money that you've invested. Offline trading systems usually involves a lot of paperwork; while with an online system, you can instantly invest, trade, move, and remove money faster.

All it takes is for you to learn about the investment, and how to trust the right brokers in case you may need to make additional decisions in the future. You must be involved with a company which you can communicate with any time during a business day. That particular company should be able to provide you with a telephone number, fax number, and email address. Steer clear from companies which do not disclose such information.

Without the right trading system, you can't trade effectively. Therefore you must choose a system which is suited for you as an individual. You must consider the trading style and the risk that it involves. A system which focuses more in risk and money management techniques is a good one. Look for a company who has been in business for many years and those with proven professional experience. It must also provide you with tools and strategies that will help you in developing your very own online trading system. If you select the right company, you can find one that is of best value for your money.

Choosing a good, and probably the best, forex trading system is one of the first things that you should learn in forex. There are three factors usually considered in choosing a forex trading system, namely: profitability, acceptability, and one that fits your daily routine.

Profitability is probably the most important consideration. People invest money to make profits, and a good system should provide that. It is shown in dollar amounts or pips/month.

Every system has a drawdown, and it is also expressed in pips. It is the biggest decrease in equity in the past. In comparing different systems, you should take a close look on its historical drawdown.

Also check for the systems profit and loss ration, as well as its win and loss ratio. The system should have consistency and you can effectively tell this by looking into their monthly or quarterly, and yearly results.

Once you've chosen a system, learn all about it, and you can expect to gain a lot from your investment.

Diposting oleh Unknown 13.45 0 komentar

Evaluating Trading Systems Characteristics and Quality

The evaluation of trading strategies is certainly one of the most necessary processes in the trading of mechanical manual or automated systems. The value of evaluation is great since it allows traders to loose their irrational fear and greed emotions and gain a true understanding about the characteristics of the trading system they intend to trade. Part of the evaluation of trading systems involves the judging of different quality parameters to distinguish what makes a system better and what makes it worse, a process which although seemingly intuitive is not so straightforward. Adequate knowledge about the information pertaining to each parameter of the test and what it conveys the user is necessary to know what its consequences actually are in real trading and what their power is from a comparative standpoint. On todays post I am going to talk about how to look at a systems characteristics and what you should be looking for to judge the quality of a given strategy.

New traders are often confused when it comes to the evaluation of trading strategies something which is not surprising if you take into account the whole amount of information which can be derived for a given system. People new to trading first seem to focus on the absolute values of the profit and maximum draw down percentages but judging the quality of a trading system merely by looking at these two values without prior experience is very hard. It is also true that judging a system just through one of these two values is misleading in the sense that it doesnt represent a good overall picture of the strategys characteristics. For example, saying that a system makes 100% a year does not make any sense if the actual potential draw down is not known and even if it is, other characteristics need to be taken into account.

The most simple way to compare a trading system to another effectively is to use ratios of profit and draw down variables. The profit factor, which compares the gross profit against the gross losses of a strategy is an initial measure of system quality. However, although this type of ratios do give us some information about the past risk to reward long term expectation (especially when evaluated over 10 year periods) they do not talk a lot about the problems the strategy would run into with increases in future risk. For this reason I believe that although these ratios are useful to some extent to compare simulations they do not fully represent the inherent market exposure of the system in a way in which a true comparison is made.

System quality - without a doubt - needs to include an analysis of increases in risk over the projected values achieved in simulations to know the true problems that the user may be running into if - for example - risk in the future increases or the estimation of profit and draw down targets is not accurate. For this reason it seems better to evaluate strategies based on projections of increased risk to know the true quality of the system and how dependent it may be on small glitches in simulations.

In this case our best shot at accurate quality comparisons seems to be the average compounded yearly profit to worst case scenario ratio in which the average yearly profit (over a 10 year period) is compared to twice the maximum draw down of the strategy (worst case ratio). To add more meaning to this increased risk comparison a careful user might also want to test the average compounded yearly profit to double consecutive loses after maximum draw down ratio (worst streak ratio). In this ratio, the average compounded yearly profit is compared to the maximum draw down percentage plus a string of loses equal to twice the number of maximum consecutive losing trades. The idea here is to get an idea about the robustness of the strategy and how bad things can turn before a bad scenario is bound to happen.

Systems that are very sensitive to small changes in the number of consecutive loses will give very unfavorable ratios in both cases while systems that have less dependency on individual trades will get better results. This way of evaluating strategies eliminates by default a lot of systems that use unsound trading tactics such as martingales and systems with very bad risk to reward ratios due to the fact that this ratio comparison makes them show their flaws if increases in risk are presented. One thing all traders should understand is that in the future the risk of any given strategy is bound to increase to some extent and having systems that are able to handle this risk increase is not only vital but necessary for successful long term trading.

The above evaluation criteria also allows you to use systems that dont need to wipe accounts to demonstrate that the market has become too risky for them. For example, a strategy with a worst case ratio of 1:2 targeting a 20% yearly profit may be stopped from trading at a 40% draw down while a system that has a 1:5 ratio in the same situation would end up killing the account before we realize it has become to risky. It is also important here to note that sound systems will have a "worst case ratio" better or only slightly worse than their "worst streak ratio" while systems that use unsound techniques -which will be sensitive to small increases in consecutive loses - will have a much worse "worst streak ratio".

In summary my advice is that you focus on the profit to draw down ratios when evaluating trading strategies but -most importantly - that you evaluate ratios in which the maximum draw down and maximum number of consecutive loses are increased so that you get a true idea about your systems robustness. If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can start designing your own likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 17.00 0 komentar