Forex Trading Systems The ultimate forex edge an Unbiased Review

As you know, I regularly review automated trading systems for the forex market but I have recently been asked by a website reader to review the ultimate forex edge trading system. Of course, as my website is called "reviewing everything forex" I am also interested in the review of regular trading systems and signal services so I decided to give this a go and review the ultimate forex edge trading system.

The forex ultimate edge website seemed to be just another cheesy marketing website that attempts to bond with the websites visitor by appealing to his likely current situation. The author first describes how he was broke and desperate (as many are likely to be when entering the website) and then he says that he saw the light and started to profit from forex trading. The story of course, has just no back to it, the trader does not mention the actual name of the company that allegedly gave him the chance to trade a 10 million dollar account or any information on any managed account or account he traded before or after this.

As a matter of fact, this is the most important thing. We have this guy telling us he can walk the walk and trade the forex market profitably but where is the proof ? Where are his account statements with all the profits he has been able to make with his trading system ? If anyone was going to learn a trading system from someone they would want him to show his trading statements right away. Why should you be different ? If he is claiming he can do something then he shouldnt have any hard time proving it if it is actually true. Now if it is, Ill be glad to take a look at the new evidence and redo this review to reflect that, but up until now, its just bunch of made up graphs and blablabla anyone can talk.

Being an account manager or selling a trading system is not supposed to be about being able to talk BS but it is supposed to be about being able to convince people through evidence and logic that your system is able to do something good with their money. Of course, up until now, this website is just a bunch of non sense which I would never consider worth buying.

If you would like to learn about automated trading systems and how there is the possibility to trade profitably with automated trading with real profit and draw down expectations please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 11.15 0 komentar

Forex Manual Trading Systems Forex Cash Factory an Unbiased Review

A few days ago, a newsletter subscriber asked me if I could review a manual trading system called "forex cash factory". On todays post I will do an analysis about this system taking into account the evidence provided on the products website. I will also give my opinion about its usefulness and how much I think it could help manual traders become long term profitable. Finally, after doing all my analysis I will tell you if I believe this product is worth buying or testing or if it is just another product which is filled with promises but fails to deliver any realistic results.

The website starts with nothing but bold claims about the system being able to "pump" tens of thousands of dollars every week out of the market. After this we see that the forex cash factory website is nothing more than a few thousands words of a guy telling us to buy something just because it can make us rich. The webpage is definitely geared towards people who are new to the forex market and are definitely looking for a way to get money quickly.

The author of the forex cash factory fails to give many important descriptions about his system. There is absolutely no mention of the profit or the risk targets of the system, no mention of the money management used when trading, no mention of the characteristics of the strategy, etc. Why would anyone buy a trading system they know nothing about ? The guy fails to explain if his system relies on scalping, swing trading, long term trading, etc. There is simply almost no information abou tthe actual trading system included on the website. The author could have written the webpage without any product because product description is extremely limited.

There is also absolutely no evidence about the profitability of the system or its ability to even produce one USD on the forex market. The thing I find the strangest is that the guy does mention on his website that the system WAS actually tested on a real account for three years before selling it. Why in the world doesnt this guy show this evidence of profitability if it does exist in reality ? Come on ! Who would refrain from posting such evidence if it is obvious that it would increase sales enormously ? No one would ! The fact remains that until the evidence is not posted, it may as well not exist, there is no reason to believe it does.

Then what about all those testimonials ? I can also sit down and makeup whatever testimonial I want, testimonials do not mean anything, specially when a "testimonial" is just a bunch of text there. All the testimonials could have been written by the author, there is no doubt about that. What you should ask for when looking for a trading system, either manual or automated, is not simply a 2000 long sales page telling you how good your life will be after you make the purchase but solid evidence showing that the system has been profitable in the past and has a high like hood of remaining profitable in the future. Why is this evidence never shown for manual trading systems ? Well, mainly because the systems usually only work for one thing, bringing the author sales profits.

In the light of the total lack of even a general description of the system and the absolute lack of any performance record of the system when there is even mentioning that such a record exists (which means that the author is purposefuly hiding it or making that up) I consider the cash factory manual trading system not worth buying and testing. If you want to know more about trading system and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable automated systems with realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 19.30 0 komentar

Forex Trading and Gambling One and the Same

I often find it curious that people tend to react very negatively when forex trading is compared to gambling. Every time I talk to a proffesional trader about this matter we end up discussing how only "new traders" gamble and proffesionals do not gamble but "trade". What is so different between forex trading and gambling ? Through the following few paragraphs I will tell you my views on the subject and why I believe that forex trading is a form of gambling. I will also tell you how they are different and what the difference between investing in forex and going to Vegas really is. At the end of this article I hope you will understand my points of view and why forex cannot be considered anything but a type of gambling.

So what is gambling anyway ? Gambling is simply the act of betting on the outcome of a given event without any true certainty about its result. Sounds familiar ? Forex trading is merely the betting of a certain amount of money on the outcome of price movement without any absolute knowledge of where price will head. Therefore, in accordance to the definition of gambling, forex trading and any other form of speculative investing is merely gambling. But if it is gambling by definition then why do proffesional traders find this comparison offensive ?

The problem arises because people often relate gambling with casinos and in casinos you are gambling on a game which has an outcome which will be statistically unfavorable to you in the long term. Casinos make money because they are NOT gambling, they know that the outcome of a large sample of events will always be in favor of the house. In practice, a player in a casino floor may feel like he or she is "gambling" (which is true for small samples which can effectively be totally random) but statistics do favor the casinos within a large number of events. What this means is that if someone plays in a casino for an infinite period of time, the casino will end up with all the money. The casino always wins since it has a statistical edge on all the games played.

Many traders are offended by the comparison because they believe that people are telling them that they trade like they would play in a casino, to inevitably lose money in the long run, which is why new traders are so often compared with casino floor players.

In reality, forex trading is gambling, but it is a "game" in which the odds are not set against you in a mandatory way. Forex trading resembles sports betting a lot more. In sports, a bet is made for a time with a lot of information which can be used to determine the winner with statistical significance. For example, if a horse has won the past 10 races, then it is bound to also win the next rase. Betting for this horse will give you a statistically higher chance of winning than betting against other horses. However, the outcome is never known so it might happen that your horse loses. However, within a large given number of events, you can be an overall winner if you know enough about the facts that affect the outcome of the events.

Forex trading is very similar, if you know enough about the facts which determine the outcome of price movements then you can statistically profit from the market even though you may lose in several events due to the true outcome of any event being unknown. The more educated gamblers make money while the less educated gamblers which have no capacity to determine the probabilities of certain price movements against others end up losing their money. Since every dollar is sold for every dollar bought, the best gamblers get in and out with money when the others get in and out to give their money.

So in the end the matter is pretty simple. If you trade like you would gamble in Vegas, without any edge, you will lose, however if you gamble with intelligence and with analysis over the outcome of events you will, in the end, become a profitable trader.

If you would like to learn more about the systems I use to trade in the forex market for a living and how you too can design and trade your own automated long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.47 0 komentar

Trading S R a Guide to my Trading Methodology

I have received some requests from people who have been interested in learning more about my manual support and resistance trading system inquiring about the specifics of the system and how it may be traded successfuly. It seems that there is a lot of confusion regarding how I choose my entries and how the system is globally traded. The objective of todays post is to draw some light into the steps I take when trading this S&R method so that other people can start trading this same way successfuly. The method uses incredibly sound trading tactics based solely on price action and I believe this is one of the simplest and most effective ways in which anyone can trade the forex markets.

To begin with, I am going to tell you the steps that I take when I go into trading my S&R trading methodology. By following these steps youll be able to get a lot more into my thought process and realize why I take the trades that are executed on the demo account (which I comment and signal on twitter). You will see that the steps require a great deal of discretion and that practice is the most important thing to trade my S&R method in a successful manner. One thing which I believe is great about this system is that as one gets experience with it, market behavior starts to show in a much clearer fashion. So what are the steps I take when using this method (my day trading S&R tactic) ?

1. Take an instrument you want to trade

2. Open up a one hour chart and other charts if you want to

3. Based on this information answer the question : Where is the trend going ? It is very important for you to be able to answer this question clearly. The system depends greatly on your ability to know where the market is globally heading. That is, you should be able to follow the trend. If the picture is not clear to you, then do NOT trade. As a wise trader once said "It is always better to lose opportunities than capital". Also do not overanalyze the situation, look at the chart. During the last 20 hours has price gone up ? or down ? If you can clearly say where the trend is likely headed then go to 4.

4. Now that you know where price is going you should locate support and resistance levels. The trick here is that you are going to wait for price to reach a resistance after a new low (in downtrends) or a support after a new high (in uptrends) and when price tests that level you are going to get into the trade in the direction of the trend. You should set your SL at a break of the resistance/support level you entered and the TP at the low or high price reached (which is a support or resistance level).

5. Before placing the trade make sure that you only place it if you can achieve a risk to reward ratio of at least 1:2, most preferably 1:3 and make sure that you trade a lot size such that you risk only 2% of your trading capital. Using the TradingBuddy EA mentioned on a post a few days ago should greatly help you with the accurate money management of trades.

As you see, the system is based on some very simple principles. You have to follow the trend, you have to enter on favorable spots (buy low, sell high) and you should have adequate money management with a very favorable risk to reward ratio. This tactic makes sure that it will be extremely hard for you to blow an account. You need to lose 50 consecutive trades to wipe an account and each trade you win buys you at least 3 loses. Trading this method will make you better at judging price action and will make market action much clearer to your eyes. In a few months you will be great at judging overall price direction and you will feel comfortable trading without any indicators.

However you should understand that this is no holy grail. Often you will not read market direction appropiately or price will reach your SL before continuing in the direction of the trend. This is normal. This method intends to allow you to have a fair share of loses, that is, you can lose 60% of the time and still come out with a profit. The key is to follow the method and learn from your mistakes. A trading journal in which each trade is recorded is VITAL to the success of anyone who wants to become a good manual trader.

If you would like to learn more about money management and the use of automated trading systems to trade the forex market successfully please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 10.17 0 komentar

To Look or Not to Look Setting and Forgetting in Automated Trading

We all fear that moment when we open up our trading terminals to find out that some portion of our profits or even worse, our initial investment capital, has been wiped out. Looking into a trading account continuously is one of the hardest things to do when getting involved in automated trading and certainly the emotions and reactions that take place when we do so lead to many of the devastating consequences that make profitable automated trading a very hard thing to achieve for most new and inexperienced traders. For many people new to automatic trading execution the answer to this problem - in which looking into losing trades makes them lose control - is a simple "Id rather not look". On todays post I am going to discuss this issue a little bit and why you cannot expect to be successful just by "setting and forgetting" and "avoiding to look" when using algorithmic trading systems.

There is something very hard about looking into a losing account or an account with trades in open draw down that makes us want to forget about them or do something to make this stop. Definitely when people start to actively deal with their accounts they generally take very bad decisions that end up costing them far more capital. Inexperienced traders usually change systems upon draw downs, interfere with the trading of automated systems and get desperate and frustrated when things spend a lot of time going against them. However, given the knowledge that long term profitable systems are hard to trade because of this, many new traders simply decide to "forget" about the accounts and system to avoid intervening and dealing with the psychological aspects of trading.

This decision is absolutely logical and it is the easiest and most obvious answer to the above mentioned premise. If youre telling me that long term profitable systems are hard to trade because they have long and deep periods of draw down then Ill just trade the system and forget about it so that I do not interfere nor suffer from these draw down periods and their existence. Although this may sound good at first, this is a very dangerous road that often leads to as many losses as the first one.

In order to understand why this is the case we first need to see how people who are indeed successful with mechanical trading systems achieve this. Definitely it is not by not looking at the systems but my gathering knowledge, strength and confidence by doing the exact opposite. The difference between an experienced and an inexperienced trader is evident when you look at the ways in which they react to the exact same situation. While within a draw down an inexperienced trader would suffer from despair and fear (only avoidable by not looking at the account) the experienced trader can look into the account and see a temporary cycle which is just a pair of his or her regular business goals. If the account then goes onto a cycle which signals that it has become too risky to be traded the experienced trader will quickly realize this and eliminate the system from his or her portfolio while the other trader will trade the system to oblivion since he or she isnt even paying attention.

What I am trying to say here is therefore pretty simple : it is not about setting and forgetting and avoiding to look into your systems and accounts, it is about looking into them and understanding what they are doing and if what they are doing is part of what they are supposed to do. Certainly at first trading long term profitable systems will require a lot of self control and discipline from new traders but in the end this ability to look at the accounts, understand, expect and evaluate in a cold-headed manner is what distinguishes the few that do make it in this business from the big crowd of traders who fail at this endeavor.

My advice here is therefore quite straight, if you want to succeed at automated trading you should keep a close eye on all your live accounts and on their performance. When you feel emotions because of their profits/losses, turn them into understanding, learn all the ins and outs of your systems logic, its profit and draw down characteristics, what it is supposed to do and how it does it, only in this way will you be able to achieve success in this very hard business called automated forex trading.

If you would like to learn more about my experience with algorithmic trading strategies and how you too can receive a true education in automated trading please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

Diposting oleh Unknown 22.46 0 komentar

Choosing Among Online Forex Trading Systems

Forex is not really new in the financial market. In fact, it is not only known by big players in the world, but also by small organizations and individuals lately. Now, forex is no longer ruled by the big players; people from all walks of life can actually do forex trading.

Before plunging in trading, you must know certain terms that are used in the market. One important term is the forex trading system. What it is all about, and what is its use.

The birth of the internet has changed the face of forex trading. Because of this very valuable tool, the FX market is easier to access, making it more convenient to small players. And all most importantly, all of this happens in real time, which is why online traders can actually make quick decisions regarding their trade.

Forex trading system is ergonomic and intuitive. All the necessary functions involved in forex trading can be done from your main screen. You can place a trade and leave an order. And not only that, you can also conduct margin analysis and position/order management.

There are many companies, located in different countries, which can provide you with a forex trading system. The very first thing that a system usually involves is investment of money. Some companies would require you to invest as low as five dollars while some can ask for as high as five hundred dollars for upfront payments. Forex systems greatly vary, and it depends largely on the company offering such service.

With the system, you can purchase companies, stocks, and make investments even in other places. You can enhance your wealth and personal preferences by investing in a forex trading system. By investing a certain amount of money, you can make even more money in the future. The forex trading system that many traders know about is built among leading companies, investors, and worldwide currencies.

The trading system can be offline or online. You are free to choose which system will work best for you. However, online trading systems are gaining more and more popularity because you have easy access to the money that you've invested. Offline trading systems usually involves a lot of paperwork; while with an online system, you can instantly invest, trade, move, and remove money faster.

All it takes is for you to learn about the investment, and how to trust the right brokers in case you may need to make additional decisions in the future. You must be involved with a company which you can communicate with any time during a business day. That particular company should be able to provide you with a telephone number, fax number, and email address. Steer clear from companies which do not disclose such information.

Without the right trading system, you can't trade effectively. Therefore you must choose a system which is suited for you as an individual. You must consider the trading style and the risk that it involves. A system which focuses more in risk and money management techniques is a good one. Look for a company who has been in business for many years and those with proven professional experience. It must also provide you with tools and strategies that will help you in developing your very own online trading system. If you select the right company, you can find one that is of best value for your money.

Choosing a good, and probably the best, forex trading system is one of the first things that you should learn in forex. There are three factors usually considered in choosing a forex trading system, namely: profitability, acceptability, and one that fits your daily routine.

Profitability is probably the most important consideration. People invest money to make profits, and a good system should provide that. It is shown in dollar amounts or pips/month.

Every system has a drawdown, and it is also expressed in pips. It is the biggest decrease in equity in the past. In comparing different systems, you should take a close look on its historical drawdown.

Also check for the systems profit and loss ration, as well as its win and loss ratio. The system should have consistency and you can effectively tell this by looking into their monthly or quarterly, and yearly results.

Once you've chosen a system, learn all about it, and you can expect to gain a lot from your investment.

Diposting oleh Unknown 13.45 0 komentar

Carrying Trades in Forex Trading For Interest

People have often think about systems which they can trade that will bring them the most long term profit with the least risk. Some of the most popular systems used to achieve this by large investors and banking institutions is the carry trade. What is this popular form of investment which is so common amongst these "big guys" ? The carry trade is simply when you buy a high yielding currency with a low yielding currency, getting an overnight interest on your position. Todays post will be dedicated to the discussion of the carry trade and why it is in fact a good yet NOT risk free fundamental-based strategy.

So how do you place a carry trade ? As I say, you need to buy a high yielding currency with the lowest possible low yielding currency (to get the highest possible interest). For example right now you could buy AUD with USD since the interest rate of the Australian central bank is 4.00% and the US central banks is 0.25%, effectively giving you a very favorable interest differential. Once you get into this position you will receive an overnight interest which is often called the "swap" which is 6 USD for each 100,000 USD. In the year you would get about 2190 USD which would mean a 2.2% interest rate.

But why isnt the carry trade risk free ? When you buy any forex pair, you effectively expose yourself to the variation of the instruments value. For example, if you bought AUD/USD at 0.8 and then after a year it is at 0.6, then the fact is that you lost 25% in addition to the 2.2% you made on interest so the actual exposure you have to the variation in the currencys value is what will make or break your profits. There is also the opposite possibility that the AUD/USD goes up to 1.0 effectively making you 25% profit.

People often try to reduce their risk in carry trades by hedging different currencies, but what they are effectively doing is changing their risk from one instrument to another. For example, hypothecally, if AUD/USD and USD/EUR were carry trades, then buying both would just mean you are exposing yourself to AUD/EUR. In fact, the forex market is made in such a way that reaching a combination of pairs which give positive swap and a final exposure to X/X (AUD/AUD on our previous example) simply does NOT exist. This is due to the fact that such a combination would be a sort of arbitrage since it would give you almost no risk.

In fact, it may be reasonable to get into different positive carry trades to diversify risk somewhat but this does not mean that your trading is risk-free. In fact, when the carry trade unwinds, due to changes in central bank interest rates (like in 2008), people will lose on ALL their carry trades, no matter the different amount of pairs they actually have. If you want to trade for interest, you need to realize that what you are doing is playing a fundamental game which will change players as the economy changes. The carry trade is NOT a set and forget strategy, you need to stay on top of the interest rates and close your positions as the gap between interest rates becomes lower.

You also need to take into account your exposure to changes in the currency pairs. Always trade such that you will not buy more lots than what you have in your account. With 1:100 leverage this means that you need to reduce the trading size by a factor of 100. For example, if you have a 1000 USD account, instead of trading 1 lot which equals 100,000 USD, trade 0.01 lots which equals 1000 USD. This way you will be absolutely covered and you will only get wiped out if the currency pair you get reaches 0. However you can increase your risk a little bit more to 0.02 meaning that you would only get wiped out by a 50% variation of the currency, something which is also very unlikely.

The best moment to start investing in a carry trade is as soon as the swap becomes positive. When this happens people start to put money into the carry trade and you are in for a long term ride, however always consider the above risk statements and have your account ready for draw downs which WILL happen when you take a carry trade. Also remember to exit positions when there are signs of economic turmoil, which may happen every 6-10 years. It is of the utmost importance to always have in mind that the carry trade is a fundamental strategy and as such it demands constant vigilance over economic conditions and interest rate differentials.

If however you are not interest in the carry trade but you would like to know more about my automated trading systems and how you too can learn to program your own long term profitable trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 10.16 0 komentar

Does Hedging on the same currency pair Really Exist A Look at Position Holding in Forex Trading

One of the things I consider the funniest about forex traders is that they seem to have a strong opposition against the removal of "hedging" from their trading capacity. However few of them do realize that the traditional hedging we have seen where you buy and sell a given currency pair at the same time is merely and illusion and that in reality it doesnt exist or -for that matter- make any real sense. On todays post I want to talk about the concept of hedging, why it simply doesnt exist in reality and why any strategy that uses this concept can be implemented without its use. After reading this post you will understand better that hedging a currency pair by having open long and short positions at the same time is not possible in the real market and you ll see how you can actually understand what you are doing when you have this on your account and how it can be implemented within your strategy to have the exact same results without ever having more than one position opened per currency pair.

What is hedging after all ? In general it refers to the taking of opposite positions with a certain degree of correlation that offers some protection against side movements in the market. So for example going short EUR/USD and short USD/CHF is bound to guarantee some protection against variations in either currency pair since they are heavily and negatively correlated. However since the correlation is not 1 the actual effectiveness of this hedge depends on market conditions and - when correlation is temporarily lost - such hedges become extremely dangerous.

However, when people in the MT4 community refer to "hedging" they generally talk about having a long and short position opened at the same time on a currency pair. For example they open up a long on the EUR/USD at X price and then a short afterwards to cover up their loses or to "fix" some of the profit level they have achieved. Many traders who are not familiar with how the market works consider hedging absolutely vital for their success and the removal of this feature seems to be extremely unacceptable.

When we look close having a short and a long trade opened on the same pair is merely an illusion. What you are doing is buying and selling the same contract so if you were actually carrying out currency exchanges (of physical currency) you would have done the same exchange twice and ended up with what you started with (your ending net positioning is 0). It doesnt actually make sense if you think about it and the way it has been implemented in MT4 is practical in some ways but very misleading in others.

As a matter of fact, any hedging strategy can be implemented EXACTLY in the same way without ever having two positions opened in the market. For example if you bought USD/JPY at 85.54 then you want to enter a short position at 84.54 then exit the short and the long at 86.54 the same effect would be realized if you closed the long at 85.54 because closing the long is indeed what you would be doing in reality if you entered a short. The later point where you exit both the long and short is irrelevant since your net positioning from the open of the short is 0.

Case 1 ( Buy 85.54, Sell 84.54, Close both 86.54)

Long Result = 86.54-85.54 = 100 pip profit
Short Result = 84.54-86.54 = 200 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

Case 2 (Buy 85.54, Close 84.54)

Long Result = 85.54-84.54 = 100 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

So in summary it is now evident that the current "short and long hedging ability" in metatrader 4 is simply an illusion and that any strategy can be implemented which currently relies on this feature simply by taking into account the net positioning of the account. When shorts are entered they close longs and when longs are entered they close shorts. In the end this leads to the exact same effect as we would have had if we had simply opened all the short and long positions simultaneously since what matters is merely our net positioning in the market. This is the approach that really makes sense and falls in line with what would happen in a physicial currency exchange.

To sum it up, if you currently have a portfolio trading on the same instrument or if you are trading a system that opens longs and shorts on the same currency pair, dont worry about hedging as you can always implement your strategy using a net positioning approach, something we will all have to do once we move entirely towarsd metatrader 5.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code likely long term profitable systems using reliable trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 16.45 0 komentar

What would you like to know about automated trading

Last week, I announced that I am working on a new version of my forex automated trading ebook. This version is not only an update but mainly a full rewrite of my efforts to help retail traders out there in the world of forex expert advisors. Before finishing my new ebook (which will be released on July the 19th) I want to make sure I include as many things as I can that may help the retail trader out there know the ins and outs about automated trading.

For this reason I decided to write this small post. The objective of this post is to ask you, fellow traders (both novice and experienced) , what would you like to know about forex automated trading ? If you want to cooperate and help me bring quality information to the world of retail forex traders please leave a comment answering one or as many as you want of the following questions (you can also email me at ekans_@hotmail.com if you find trouble leaving a comment).

• What has been the hardest for you in the world of automated trading ?
• What specific things would you have liked someone to explain to you before you ventured into this area.
• What questions do you find unanswered in your quest for automated trading profitability ?
• What would you definetely like to know about automated trading ?

I would like to thank the people who take the time to answer these quetions in advance, your help will most likely make my ebook much better for both experience and novice forex traders. It is my goal that with this new version of the ebook many people will be saved from losing their money and will have a much clearer idea of how much and how money can be made by using automated trading systems. I will also probably use your answers to write a few blog posts about the questions mentioned above :)

If you would like to purchase the actual ebook at a lower price (you get all future updates for free, including the one commented on this post) or learn more about automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. Thanks again for your answers !

Diposting oleh Unknown 05.32 0 komentar

A Possible Ebook About Automated Trading in The Forex Market

The objective of this post is just to get your opinion about something I have been thinking about for the past two weeks. I have had the idea of writing an ebook about automated trading. This including my personal experience with several experts, my backtesting and forward testing results (with analysis of course), my views on free experts, commercial experts, setup explanations and profit/loss potential. The idea would be to guide someone completely new to automated forex trading towards the best free and commercial experts as well as explain the real profit or loss possibilities in forex automated trading. I would like to make it concise, about 20 pages, but very informative to novice traders who want to consider automated trading seriously. As always I would maintain my non-affiliate status with all commercial expert makers to remain unbiased throughout the whole process.

My questions for you are very simple. Would you be interested in paying for this ebook ? How much would you be willing to pay ? What would you like for it to contain ? What are your doubts and questions about automated trading ?

Last but not least, I would like to thank in advance anyone who comments and leaves his/her opinions about my proposal. Happy trading !

Diposting oleh Unknown 08.01 0 komentar

Making Easy Money on Global Forex Trading

There are different forms of business. But the easiest way of making money is to trade forex. One of the leading providers of forex trading in real times basis is the global forex trading. It started out its operation since 1997. It gives chances to individuals to trade forex online on real times and it offers an opportunity to most forex brokers to earn millions each day.

Global forex trading is currently serving over one hundred countries. It uses the DealBrook FX2 software and provides twenty four hours access on the forex market. It is also equipped with the highest quality of consumer service which is widely available in the industry of forex trading. The forex brokers are given the opportunity to have an access on the prices of over sixty currency pairs and provide analytical services from renowned experts. The traders are also updated with the latest news bulletin on currency status and available forex charts. Global forex trading is the only provider of trading platforms on forex suitable for beginners as well as professionals.

There are various advantages when trading forex. It is very accessible since it is open twenty four hours besides having the most liquid market. The leverage strategy is always available wherein the traders have the option in using a 100:1 leverage. This reduces the need for larger capitals that is to be opened on the traders account. Forex trading has no commission and the trading is widely available over sixty currencies all over the world. Forex trading is globally available that is why the traders have wider trading opportunities regardless of any market conditions.

Don't assume that forex trading is only for big investors because of the given advantages. Global forex trading have open the way for smaller transactions. In this way, both small and big investors are given the opportunity to gain profits from trading forex.

In rare cases, some people assume that the market for global forex trading dwarfs the equities. However, this is not true because the volume of forex trading even exceeds two trillion dollars each day. So, global forex trading is considered the leader in the field of competitive market exchange. There are several reasons why global forex trading is very exciting.

- The forex market is widely available. The traders can trade currencies twenty four hours a day, seven days a week regardless of its fluctuations. This provides greater market opportunity for traders compared to equities which can only transact business on market hours or when stock exchanges are available.

- The global forex trading potential leverage is astounding. Compared to stock trading, the trader can either trade with the money that they have or open margin accounts and double the leverage when trading. Take for example, you funded your margin accounts with 25,000 then you can control an equity position of 50,000. But in global forex trading, your original capital can obtain leverages up to 20, 50, or even 100 times.

In this manner, the traders can open a forex brokerage online with only 5,000 dollars and can control positions up to 200,000 dollars or above. And if the trader can fund an account with 10,000 dollars then he can control positions up to 500,000 dollars. So, whether the trader can only gain 5% on the positions, then it would still be equivalent to a 25,000 dollars gain with only an initial capital of 10,000 dollars.

- There are lots of traders in the forex market. However, even if it is possible to earn fast profits, the risk of losing is also very high. That is why the technical and fundamental analysis of forex markets is very important. It is advisable for traders to get forex education to have a good start. It could increase their chance of becoming successful forex traders. The traders should guard their business from potential losses.

Global forex trading is indeed a high speculative endeavor. Keep in mind that the traders who are successful in trading forex are those who are methodical, have strong controls over their emotions and impulses, fault-analytical, and disciplined. The traders can really earn big profits in just a few days of trading, it will grow as the time goes by, however only avoid making any mistakes.

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.16 0 komentar

Managing Money in Forex Trading A Practical Approach

Yesterday I wrote a post about how successful forex traders develop their ability to make money and how anyone interested in making a living from trading should absolutely consider the managing of other peoples funds as the easiest way to achieve their financial freedom. The reason for this is that simply most people wont have the necessary amount of money to make a living (about 250-350K USD) with the risk levels necessary to preserve capital through the draw down periods which are characteristic of all long term profitable trading strategies. Today I want to write a post about the practical aspects of money management and the technical and legal aspects of this journey.

First of all, I consider that if you want to be a money manager you need to have a track record that shows net profitability through a statistically relevant amount of time. This means that you should have a real live account that can show a verified track record of at least 5 years. This will show that you are able to tackle a wide variety of market conditions and that your systems and abilities are able to both make and preserve capital. The initial balance of this account is actually not that relevant and even a 5 year, 1K account with net profitability will be enough.

What next ? Well, the most popular model for account management is done through a limited power of attorney in which you receive permission from a client to manage their funds but you dont have the ability to withdraw any money. Effectively either the broker or your client have to make the payments for you when they are due. Payments are usually made on new equity highs as a percentage of profit from equity high to equity high. For example, if an account was at 110 and then reached 120 the client made 10 and if you charge a 20% commission then you keep 2.

One of the most important aspects you need to consider here is that the limited power of attorney approach - even if it does not give you power to withdraw your clients funds - is a type of money management practice and it is therefore subject to the pertinent regulations. In the US - for example - you can manage up to 140K USD or 15 clients without becoming a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) but anything above that requires registration by law, bear in mind that the waive of registration also requires you NOT to advertise yourself as a money manager so you will be limited to a small crowd of investors (probably friends). This however only applies to US customers and to manage money from investors from other parts of the world you will need to deal with their own countrys regulations as you will be subject to the regulations of the customers home country.

Now, managing 140K from US customers is a very good start (even more if you have customers from other countries) but if you are truly serious about your business then you need to become a Commodity Trading Advisor. Registering requires you to pass a Series 3 exam and to pay almost 1000 USD in annual fees and this is therefore a step you may want to take only after managing your first small customer base for 2-3 years. Once you reach this point you will be able to start a business and manage a limitless pool of investors which effectively makes your income potentially VERY large. Even if you only manage an average yearly return of 10% (a return many new forex traders would laugh at), managing 20 million dollars this will already mean a 400K income for you at a 20% commission.

In conclusion, if you really want to live from trading and if you really want to make a lot of money from it then probably you will have to work hard for the next 8-10 years to perfect your ability to make money and to begin your journey as a successful money manager. This indeed sounds MUCH more realistic that what expert advisor and forex system sellers told you, doesnt it ?

If you would like to learn more about the use of automated trading systems to achieve success in trading and how you too can learn to code, evaluate and use your own systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 11.00 0 komentar

Forex Trading Course: A Must for Forex Beginners

In the world's largest financial market where exchanges reach up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to participate in this market. Aside from being the largest financial market in the world, Forex is also the most liquid market in the world where trades are done 24 hours a day.

A lot of traders have become very rich trading in the Forex market. And, many people who trade in the Forex market everyday have found a great way to replace their day jobs. Some even became millionaires almost overnight by just trading in this financial market.

Trading in the Forex market can be very attractive. However, you should also know that there have been people who suffered extreme financial losses in the Forex market. It is true that the Forex market offers a very good money-making opportunity to a lot of people, but it also has its risks.

It is a fact that people who didn't have the right knowledge and skills trading in the Forex market suffered huge financial losses and some even went into debt. So, before you enter the Forex market, it is essential that you should have the necessary knowledge and skills as a Forex trader in order to minimize the risk of losing money and maximize the potential of making money.

Many people who were successful in the Forex market have went through a Forex trading course to get the knowledge and skills needed to successfully trade in this very liquid and very large financial market.

In a Forex trading course, you will learn about when it is the right time to buy or sell, chart the movements, spot market trends and also know how to use the different trading platforms available in the Forex market.

You will also be familiarized with the terminologies used in the Forex market. Even the basic knowledge about trading in the Forex market can be a great help with your money-making venture in the world's largest market.

There are different Forex trading courses available, all you need to do is choose one that suits your needs as a trader. There are crash courses where all the basic things about Forex will be taught to you in a short period of time, full time online courses, where you will learn all about Forex through the internet and there are also full time real life classroom courses where you can learn the ropes about Forex in a real classroom with a live professor.

You can also become an apprentice. However, in order to learn a lot about Forex as an apprentice, you need to make sure that you have a seasoned Forex trader who can share a lot of things to you about the Forex market.

Here are some of the basic things you should look for in a Forex trading course in order for you to get the sufficient knowledge about Forex trading:

� Margins
� Leveraging
� Types of orders
� Major currencies

A good Forex trading course will also explain a lot about the fundamental and technical analysis of charts. As a trader, knowing how to analyze a chart is an essential skill that you should have. So, when you are looking for a Forex trading course, you should look for a course that offers fundamental and technical analysis instruction.

Stress plays a vital part in Forex traders. Knowing how to deal with stress is also a skill that you should develop. A good Forex trading course should teach you how to deal with stress and trade effectively and efficiently.

As much as possible, you should look for a Forex trading course that offer actual trading systems where students can trade real money on the Forex market or at least trade on dummy accounts in a simulated Forex market. This hands-on experience will greatly benefit you. Besides, the best way to learn about anything is by actually experiencing it. Live trading and simulations should be offered in a Forex trading course.

So, if you plan on getting involved in the Forex market, consider finding all these things in a Forex trading course. Developing the right knowledge and skills in trading in the world's largest and most liquid market in the world will definitely help you make it to the top and achieve your dreams as a Forex trader.

Diposting oleh Unknown 01.16 0 komentar

Evaluating Trading Systems Characteristics and Quality

The evaluation of trading strategies is certainly one of the most necessary processes in the trading of mechanical manual or automated systems. The value of evaluation is great since it allows traders to loose their irrational fear and greed emotions and gain a true understanding about the characteristics of the trading system they intend to trade. Part of the evaluation of trading systems involves the judging of different quality parameters to distinguish what makes a system better and what makes it worse, a process which although seemingly intuitive is not so straightforward. Adequate knowledge about the information pertaining to each parameter of the test and what it conveys the user is necessary to know what its consequences actually are in real trading and what their power is from a comparative standpoint. On todays post I am going to talk about how to look at a systems characteristics and what you should be looking for to judge the quality of a given strategy.

New traders are often confused when it comes to the evaluation of trading strategies something which is not surprising if you take into account the whole amount of information which can be derived for a given system. People new to trading first seem to focus on the absolute values of the profit and maximum draw down percentages but judging the quality of a trading system merely by looking at these two values without prior experience is very hard. It is also true that judging a system just through one of these two values is misleading in the sense that it doesnt represent a good overall picture of the strategys characteristics. For example, saying that a system makes 100% a year does not make any sense if the actual potential draw down is not known and even if it is, other characteristics need to be taken into account.

The most simple way to compare a trading system to another effectively is to use ratios of profit and draw down variables. The profit factor, which compares the gross profit against the gross losses of a strategy is an initial measure of system quality. However, although this type of ratios do give us some information about the past risk to reward long term expectation (especially when evaluated over 10 year periods) they do not talk a lot about the problems the strategy would run into with increases in future risk. For this reason I believe that although these ratios are useful to some extent to compare simulations they do not fully represent the inherent market exposure of the system in a way in which a true comparison is made.

System quality - without a doubt - needs to include an analysis of increases in risk over the projected values achieved in simulations to know the true problems that the user may be running into if - for example - risk in the future increases or the estimation of profit and draw down targets is not accurate. For this reason it seems better to evaluate strategies based on projections of increased risk to know the true quality of the system and how dependent it may be on small glitches in simulations.

In this case our best shot at accurate quality comparisons seems to be the average compounded yearly profit to worst case scenario ratio in which the average yearly profit (over a 10 year period) is compared to twice the maximum draw down of the strategy (worst case ratio). To add more meaning to this increased risk comparison a careful user might also want to test the average compounded yearly profit to double consecutive loses after maximum draw down ratio (worst streak ratio). In this ratio, the average compounded yearly profit is compared to the maximum draw down percentage plus a string of loses equal to twice the number of maximum consecutive losing trades. The idea here is to get an idea about the robustness of the strategy and how bad things can turn before a bad scenario is bound to happen.

Systems that are very sensitive to small changes in the number of consecutive loses will give very unfavorable ratios in both cases while systems that have less dependency on individual trades will get better results. This way of evaluating strategies eliminates by default a lot of systems that use unsound trading tactics such as martingales and systems with very bad risk to reward ratios due to the fact that this ratio comparison makes them show their flaws if increases in risk are presented. One thing all traders should understand is that in the future the risk of any given strategy is bound to increase to some extent and having systems that are able to handle this risk increase is not only vital but necessary for successful long term trading.

The above evaluation criteria also allows you to use systems that dont need to wipe accounts to demonstrate that the market has become too risky for them. For example, a strategy with a worst case ratio of 1:2 targeting a 20% yearly profit may be stopped from trading at a 40% draw down while a system that has a 1:5 ratio in the same situation would end up killing the account before we realize it has become to risky. It is also important here to note that sound systems will have a "worst case ratio" better or only slightly worse than their "worst streak ratio" while systems that use unsound techniques -which will be sensitive to small increases in consecutive loses - will have a much worse "worst streak ratio".

In summary my advice is that you focus on the profit to draw down ratios when evaluating trading strategies but -most importantly - that you evaluate ratios in which the maximum draw down and maximum number of consecutive loses are increased so that you get a true idea about your systems robustness. If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can start designing your own likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 17.00 0 komentar

The Greatest Advantage of Automated Trading at Least for Me !

It is true that my posts regarding automated trading are generally focused towards the negative aspects of this way of trading and explaining why it is bound to be harder to achieve than simple manual profitable trading. However, there are a few advantages inherent to automated trading that have made it my operational way of choice and the generator of the majority of my current income level. Within the next few paragraphs I will be explaining to you one of the main reasons why I decided to use automated instead of manual trading systems to succeed in forex trading, especially why this is so beneficial for my trading style and personality. I will also tell you why this quality is also a double edged sword and why it does NOT mean that you can just "set and forget" trading systems.

Yes, we have all heard the many "benefits" inherent to automated trading. Most EA sellers just tell you that you can make money while you sleep, trade like a professional without knowing anything and simply enjoy the profits using the forex market like some sort of ATM machine. The truth is VERY far away from this and automated trading is simply not what they tell you it is. In reality automated trading is harder to achieve than manual profitable trading and it is as challenging and demanding from a psychological point of view.

What is the difference then ? What are the TRUE advantages of automated trading ? In reality automated trading has a lot of pitfalls but it also has some great advantages that made me decide to go with it instead of regular full time manual trading when starting to build my forex trading career.

Truth be told, the fact that you are able to watch the markets 24/7 and "not miss any trades" or do a "ton of analysis in a millisecond" were not the things that made me choose this way of trading over manual execution. Even though you may think that this is actually better the fact is that you can use manual trading systems that require only a few minutes every day to achieve the same profitability levels as a regular long term profitable automated trading system. I know traders who trade daily charts and dont spend much time "working" and achieve the same profit targets as me so the fact that you can just have an ever-watchful eye is not a true reason to choose automated over manual trading since being on a constant lookout for trading opportunities is not necessary nor does it warranty more success in trading.

The most important reason that drove me to use automated instead of manual trading systems was simply that - from a psychological point of view - I am better able to control my short term emotions when I do not have to take the actual trades of the systems I am using. I am very good at dealing with draw down periods since I always have a strong analysis and long term perspective but having to take trades from a strategy that has been losing for a given period of time manually is just psychologically hard for me to do. As a trader, I quickly noticed that draw down periods when trading manually made me change my strategy and this led to long term loses and deviations from my projected profit and draw down targets.

Automated trading is a blessing in the sense that it offers me the ability to have a long term plan and stick to its guidelines even if I am not actually personally executing each position the system goes into. Of course this does NOT mean that automated trading is emotionless and those of you who assume this to be the case will be making a BIG mistake. Automated trading attacks your psychology a LOT but from a different perspective. If you dont understand the system you are using you will not be successful because you will not know if you should or shouldnt stop using a given trading system when a draw down period happens, you will constantly wonder if it has stopped working and you will NOT be able to achieve long term profitability.

Even though automated trading is very demanding emotionally, it is demanding in a way which I am more comfortable with. I am very meticulous about the analysis and understanding of my trading systems and I have built what I think is a very good capacity to draw plans around automated trading systems and stick to them. Manual trading is demanding for me in a way that I cannot handle very well, reason why automated trading became the perfect answer for my question about success in forex trading.

So for me not having to personally suffer through each trade of my systems is great since I am better able to handle the great psychological pressure that is exerted by automated trading systems in other ways. However what you have to realize here is that whatever you choose -manual or automated trading -, it will be challenging and believing that automated trading will be a "breeze" simply because you dont have to watch and take every trade is going to be a FATAL mistake. In the end it comes down to having a well laid out plan, a GREAT understanding of your trading strategy and the will to execute your plan exactly as you have laid it out.

If you would like to learn more about the psychology of automated trading, the building of systems and how you can trade with confidence with a likely long term profitable system YOU build based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.31 0 komentar

A new Likely Long Term Profitable Trading System The GBP JPY daily breakout system

As many of you may know, I am always on the search for new automated trading systems to test and increase the size of our profitable trading portfolio. My criteria before testing has luckily saved me from testing useless expert advisors that would have never been profitable because of their unsound logic, money management, etc. However, some systems have gone through my extensive searching criteria and are now going to be subject of a 2 years long forward testing on one of my virtual private servers.

Today I would like to introduce you to one of this likely long term profitable expert advisors which is the GBP/JPY daily system which was pointed out to me by a newsletter subscriber. The system which was originally proposed to me was however not long term profitable since it simply relied on entering positions on breakouts of the first N bars of each weeks trade on the GBP/JPY and trading then using a fixed SL, TP and money management.

Testing of this strategy gave profitable results for most 2008 and 2009, nonetheless the expert failed dramatically before 2008 as a consequence of a change in market conditions which did not favor the expert advisor. My solution was quiet straightforward, I adjusted every variable of the expert advisor to be adjusted dynamically according to the range of the "box" formed between the high and low determined by the first N bars of the week on the one hour chart.

Testing revealed however that the system was still missing something to be profitable since no matter what we did, the system did not seem to profit between 2000 and 2007. Then it was perfectly clear that the system does not work when the GBP/JPY behaves as a carry trade and only works when it behaves as a trending pair like the EUR/USD. The solution then seemed quiet straightforward. I included both ATR and ADX volatility filters which kept the EA out of all the large losing periods while letting it trade profitably during the times where it would get the most profit. The results ? You can see them below (backtesting from 1999).
-
-
It is evident from this that you can take almost any system that is not long term profitable and with the right thinking in mind turn it into a long term profitable expert advisor. Of course, this system will start to be tested and all my newsletter subscribers will get access to it as well as my weekly comments on its trading and performance.
-
If you want to learn more about profitable expert advisors and the criteria I use to create them please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 04.16 0 komentar

September Video Reviews New Commercial Automated Trading Systems

Today I am releasing the 2nd video monthly reviews of automated trading systems. In August we saw the release of many different new trading systems, most of the expert advisors released have absolutely no proof of live trading and most of them do not even give the trader a decent glimpse at simulation results. As always there is an incredible desire of EA sellers to hide information that is easily available and to make the showing of live trading results a shadowy process based on screenshots and html statements when having transparency is as simple as offering a live, investor access verified myfxbook account.

This month we saw the release of forex bullet proof which was pushed hardly by affiliates with a massive amount of junk email being sent. After looking at the website we then find nothing but a very dangerous martingale system with very shadowy "evidence" of profitability that is certainly NOT reliable and makes us become very suspicious about the ability of this system to be profitable in the long term. Anyway, I invite you to watch this months videos to learn more about these trading systems and the reliability of the evidence they provide.

If you are having problems watching the videos please remember that you need the free DivX codec or player available here.

Forex Bullet Proof, an unbiased review

Forex SAS, an unbiased review

Forex MeltDown, an unbiased review

Forex Morning Trade, an unbiased review

FX Wealth Machine, an unbiased review

Forex CounterAttack, an unbiased review

I hope you enjoy this weeks videos. As always please remember that the burden of proof is on the sellers live accounts and NOT on your own. You should not buy any trading system out of faith and the EA sellers should ALWAYS provide reliable evidence of long term profitability. Remember that every time an EA seller avoids showing evidence, it is for a VERY good reason.

If you would like to learn how to make your own automated trading systems and gain a true education about algorithmic trading and how to design systems with realistic profit and draw down values using sound trading techniques please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

Diposting oleh Unknown 02.15 0 komentar

Trading Reality and Automated Trading Realistic Profit Expectations Looking at the Barclay Currency Traders Index

Yesterday I received a very interesting email from an Asirikuy member pointing me to a database showing the past 20 years of performance of top forex traders and funds (the data was originally discussed in this article). Although I had seen the indexed performance of several currency traders before this is the first time in which I had found this data in such an organized and reliable fashion, put together by Barclay Hedge. The Barclay Currency trader index,- in their own words- contains "An equal weighted composite of managed programs that trade currency futures and/or cash forwards in the inter bank market. In 2010 there are 119 currency programs included in the index". To sum it up, the Barclay Currency trader index gives you a snapshot at what the proffesionals in the field are achieving showing you exactly what profit expectations are more realistic and which ones are to be considered completely dilusional. On todays post I want to write a little bit about this data to get those of you who are unaware of what the "industry standard" is, a better perspective of what is and what is not realistically achievable in currency trading.

In the world of currency trading - and particularly in automated trading - people are often pointed out that it is "very easy" to achieve huge amounts of profit in the forex market. Moreover, real live results that show you increases of 100-1000% in a few months are not uncommon in the forex market and they appear to show new traders that you can actually make a small fortune quickly from a small investment in currency trading. However new traders often have absolutely no idea of what the industry proffesionals are achieving or what hedge funds that deal with currency instruments actually get and therefore they often believe the paid actors that pose as traders on automated trading sales sites saying that they have earned millions in currency trading in a few months.

The fact is that huge returns are possible with a huge market exposure and the problem with a huge market exposure is that it causes huge wipeouts of capital as the market evolves. So this is analogous to a person who wins the lottery. You get a huge amount of return in one run but if you spent all your lottery money in tickets, you would hardly ever win again or if you do, keeping on doing this will eventually wipe you clean. The market - I believe - has a self-limiting character which makes the systematic exploitation of market inefficiencies to achieve huge profits impossible due to the fact that huge profits require huge exposures, and huge exposures - lead to wipeouts.

The golden question is then what is realistically possible ? Since there is no way in which the "top" possible average profitability can be inferred the best measurement we have of what can be systematically achieved is what the average people in the field are actually doing and have been doing for a long time. I have to stress here that the "long time" part here is very important since long periods of time imply robustness and statistical significance. Anyone can triple an account in 2 months, but doing it for 20 years is something very different. When you have been trading for a long amount of time it means that you have very sound risk and money management tools that guarantee your long term success by limiting your present market exposure.
--
If you check the Barclay Currency Traders Index you will see that the average compounded yearly returns are not to die for. Currency traders average a 7.71% compounded anual return with a worst draw down of 15.26%, certainly traders are in average conservative. However looking at all the profit and draw down figures of the particular traders you will see that average compounded returns and maximum draw down figures are often in a 1:2 to 2:1 ratio, meaning that the average yearly return is actually never better than twice the maximum draw down. If you are thinking that these figures dont apply to you because these traders dont have the "flexibility" of small account holders, you are wrong. Many of these traders are NOT trading billions and many of them have access to liquidity you would only dream of so if anything trading conditions for most of these guys are only better than for the average forex trader.

A very important thing about this index is also that it shows that diversification is the key to long term success with the sum of all traders giving a very smooth equity curve over a 20 year long period. So probably a good lesson to learn here is that using several strategies that are all long term profitable will probably help us reduce draw downs as it helps the Barclay Currency Traders Index smooth its performance. As we have seen with the Atinalla project, having a large amount of diversification is very beneficial in the long term for trading strategies.

However the most important thing about these profit and draw down figures is that they show us the true face of market exposure and what you can expect to be realistic. If in the best case your maximum draw down level is likely going to be around one half your average compounded yearly profit then a monthly 100-200% return or a 100% yearly return for that matter are unrealistic or excessively risky for any sound investor. In the end, this currency trader index tells us that for moderate risks, forex investors should aim for a yearly profit of 20-30% if their risk appetite is moderate.

Currently our Atinalla No.1 portfolio would hold a place near the top of the Barclay Index and for this reason I would be tempted to say that it is very profitable. However we must consider here that the portfolio has not been run for 20 years on a live account and only time will tell us what its real profit and draw down targets are. Nonetheless the most important thing about Atinalla project portfolios is that they are traded with a very good profit expectation and a VERY clear worst case equity-loss scenario in mind, which is 36% for the Atinalla No.1 Portfolio.

If you would like to learn more about forex automated trading and how you too can design your automated trading systems based on sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 16.15 0 komentar

My Turtle Trading EA First Profitable Results !

After doing the first preliminary backtests and realizing that the system failed to generate profits from 2000 to 2009, I decided to take a good look at my programming and check the logic to see if I had any substantial errors that could be affecting the experts trading. After examining the expert for about an hour I realized that I had a problem with the closing logic which was partially closing positions. The ea was closing with lot sizes equal to the atr calculated values, not the values the orders were orginally opened with, so order management was a little bit of a mess.

After correcting this and other less important issues I finally came up with an expert advisor that truly trades the turtle system 2 accurately. As I expected, results are now profitable for trading since 2000 to 2009. The expert is also profitable amongst several currency pairs, including the four majors.

Backtesting reveals that this system behaves exactly as I had supposed it did. We have periods of moderate but extensive loses and then we have very large, trend catching trades that consitute most of our profits. In fact, most of this profitable trades are many times larger than the average losing trade . Trying with different exit and breakout day parameters reveals that the turtles nailed it just right. This expert will not make anyone rich overnight, with the EUR/USD (first graph), you could expect to triple your capital once every 10 years while it would take you this much time to double your capital on the GBP/USD (second graph). If you want a system that has worked for the past 40 years and that can give you a long term, stable profit, then this is a system for you.
---
As you can see on the backtesting images, this expert advisor is a slow, steady, sure money maker, based on the turtle system 2. This expert also backtests with a high consistency because it trades only on very large periods of time (sometimes trades remain opened for several months). You can get it by simply subscribing to my newsletter (corrected ea has already been uploaded to the ftp for subscribers), buying me a cup of coffee or buying my automated trading ebook.

If you would like to learn more about other free and commercial expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 10.30 0 komentar

So What is your edge in forex trading

I have always wondered if people are really aware at how difficult to trade the forex market actually is. Most of the time people seem to know that the foreign exchange is a place where most people lose their money but they seem to be a little bit away from the concept. Most people consider this does not apply to them. Now, the truth is that most people lose money in the market, specially the foreign exchange market and certainly there is a lot you have to do if you want to become one of the few that can actually profit from this beast in a regular basis. There are a few things that make this more complicated, something which I wanted to point out so that people really become aware of what they are going against.

1. Your competition is not retarded : This is a very important aspect that most traders seem to neglect. They often belive that most people that lose money out there are just ignorant people who dont know what they are doing in the forex market and lose every penny on their accounts due to them not knowing how to trade. Wrong. Of course, this people lose their money too, but most people trading the market are not so ignorant and often, know much more than the new retail trader. Some people out there who lose are economist and finance specialists, so knowlgedge perse is not a way to win in the forex market, experience is very important. I would say, experience and knowledge go hand in hand and both have extreme importance. So dont think you know better if you have not been trading for at least 10 years. It is very difficult to have an edge this way.

2. Your competition wants to win : Most people also neglect that their competition wants that money as hard as they do. If they want to belong to the top traders that take money frequently from the market they have to wonder what they can do to win in their own game. These traders have been taken money from the market for years, even decades, and they are not alone. They are usually teams of very trained proffessionals and experienced retail traders that just want that money as much or much more than you. So what is your edge against them ? Cause I am certain they have plenty of edge against you.

3. Trading a commercial Expert Advisor is NOT an edge : Why would you have an edge if you trade FAP turbo, a system that has been bought and is traded by about 30,000 people ? Thats right, that simply does not give you an edge because it is a tool many many traders are using to try to profit against the market and market eficiency most likely prevents this from happening. Since the trading system is mechanical and automated, it is easily overrun by top forex traders around the world. Sincerely, honestly, do you think that using something you do not understand and many other thousands use gives you an edge ? It simply doesnt, thats probably the truth. They also know how to google, and they too know the program exists and why not to trade it. As I said earlier, your competition is not retarded, every obvious thing you can do to profit, is already taken into account and it wont make you profitable.

4. Automated Trading Systems Need to be Understood to Consitute an Edge : Ok, trading an expert advisor everyone can get their hands into and trade and that is highly commercially hyped wont give you any edge. But that does not mean that automated systems cannot constitute an advantage. If you trade an automated system that exploits a genuine characteristic of the market and you truly understand the way this expert advisor works, then the expert can give you an edge against every trader out there losing money with a commercial EA. The system most be robust, be able to change against different market conditions and you must understand its code and the way it works, from A to Z.

5. You need to know Manual and Automated Trading for Automated Trading to be an Edge (probably programming too) : Yes, sorry to disappoint everyone out there, but if it was as easy as running a program made by Joe X and watching the money flow into your pockets then everybody would do it, right ? As I have said many times, being profitable with automated trading system is even HARDER than being profitable with manual trading systems because long term profitability in automated trading not only requires the regular knowledge of the market a successful forex trader has but it requires knowledge about which systems can be automated, what can really work, how to program the expert, how to debug, how to address the profitability of a system to know if it is long term profitable, etc. If you are just hopping to run an EA and become a millionaire, please, do NOT waste your time, you will only lose money with that attitude in the long run.

I hope this few parameters shine a little light into how hard the forex market really is and how you too can build your edge around a solid automated trading system. If you would like to learn more about ea profitability and automated trading, as well as expert advisors I have tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 16.45 0 komentar