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Mathematical Expectancy A Basic Powerful Concept in System Design and Development

Through my last few posts I have mentioned the concept of mathematical expectancy , a very important and useful concept which many people seem to be unfamiliar with. The objective of todays post is to talk a little bit about the concept of mathematical expectancy and its usefulness, pointing out why it is such a fundamental and useful tool in the development of long term profitable trading systems and a key step in the evaluation of any given entry logic. I will start the post with the definition and purpose of mathematical expectancy and I will then continue with some examples and concepts which will show you why the analysis of mathematical expectancy is extremely important and a necessary step in the design of any given trading system.

Many of you may have wondered how successful traders come out with a good entry logic for their trading systems, being manual or automated. How can these people know the chances of success of a given entry logic and use it within their system development ? Many people who are new to automated or manual trading usually have an over-focusing - with little analysis - on the entry logic completely neglecting the development of the money management part. Not only does this pave the way towards the development of unprofitable systems but it doesnt help that the way in which the entries are developped is non-systematical and statistically not rigurous. usually youll find that people develop a given entry logic based on visual observations of a VERY limited number of market situations and then modify the entries in forward/live testing as they fail under current conditions. This speaks about the lack of knowledge of this novice developers and the way in which they view market and long term profitability.

A simple question then arises. Is there a way to systematically evaluate different entries to know which entry is better, which time frame is better and what exit strategies may be more suitable ? The answer comes in the form of mathematical expectancy analysis- an absolutely simple- yet absolutely powerful technique which allows you to evaluate the POTENTIAL (different from the profitability which comes into play when money management is implemented !!) of a given entry logic. So what is exactly mathematical expectancy and how does it play a role in system development ?

The mathematical expectancy analysis is simply a technique which allows you to know the extent to which the market is bound to move in a certain direction after a given entry is taken. The analysis is fairly simple, you mark every entry for a given logic on a chart and then you mark a set given number of bars into the future. So for example, if you want to evaluate the mathematical expectancy of a moving average cross on a 10 bar period you simply mark each entry and then you mark the tenth bar after the entry. After doing this you determine the high/low of this ten period after the entry. This gives you the maximum the market moved in favor of your entry and against your entry during this period. When you do this over a very large sample size you can determine the average movement in favor and against you and you will be able to tell if the mathematical expectancy of your system is positive or negative. This marks the potential of your entry.

This analysis is very versatile and very important. By changing the number of periods in the analysis you can see if your strategy is better at capturing short or long movements and what timeframe fits your strategy best. For example, some systems may have negative mathematical expectancy on a small number of periods while the mathematical expectancy may be positive under larger periods meaning that the system is better fit at capturing long term movements than short term movements. This analysis also allows you to design appropiate exit techniques for a given entry logic since you know what the average movement against and in favor of your entry is you can calculate an adaptive SL or TP such that in average you will hit the TP and miss the SL.

It is of course terribly difficult to explain all the aspects of mathematical expectancy within a single post reason why I only meant to give a small introduction to the topic within this post so that people interested in system design may know that this technique exists and has a paramount importance in the development of a systems entry logic. Within my website - in Asirikuy- I have made several videos explaining both the theory and practical aspects of evaluating mathematical expectancy over a 10 years period, in additon I have also coded an EA to allow people to evaluate any given entry logic . If you arent interested in Asirikuy then at least you now know this tool exists and you can either make your own EA to evaluate this aspect or you can do your own research to find more information on the subject :o).

If you would like to learn more about what I have learned in automated trading and how you too can design and program systems to use in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Carrying Trades in Forex Trading For Interest

People have often think about systems which they can trade that will bring them the most long term profit with the least risk. Some of the most popular systems used to achieve this by large investors and banking institutions is the carry trade. What is this popular form of investment which is so common amongst these "big guys" ? The carry trade is simply when you buy a high yielding currency with a low yielding currency, getting an overnight interest on your position. Todays post will be dedicated to the discussion of the carry trade and why it is in fact a good yet NOT risk free fundamental-based strategy.

So how do you place a carry trade ? As I say, you need to buy a high yielding currency with the lowest possible low yielding currency (to get the highest possible interest). For example right now you could buy AUD with USD since the interest rate of the Australian central bank is 4.00% and the US central banks is 0.25%, effectively giving you a very favorable interest differential. Once you get into this position you will receive an overnight interest which is often called the "swap" which is 6 USD for each 100,000 USD. In the year you would get about 2190 USD which would mean a 2.2% interest rate.

But why isnt the carry trade risk free ? When you buy any forex pair, you effectively expose yourself to the variation of the instruments value. For example, if you bought AUD/USD at 0.8 and then after a year it is at 0.6, then the fact is that you lost 25% in addition to the 2.2% you made on interest so the actual exposure you have to the variation in the currencys value is what will make or break your profits. There is also the opposite possibility that the AUD/USD goes up to 1.0 effectively making you 25% profit.

People often try to reduce their risk in carry trades by hedging different currencies, but what they are effectively doing is changing their risk from one instrument to another. For example, hypothecally, if AUD/USD and USD/EUR were carry trades, then buying both would just mean you are exposing yourself to AUD/EUR. In fact, the forex market is made in such a way that reaching a combination of pairs which give positive swap and a final exposure to X/X (AUD/AUD on our previous example) simply does NOT exist. This is due to the fact that such a combination would be a sort of arbitrage since it would give you almost no risk.

In fact, it may be reasonable to get into different positive carry trades to diversify risk somewhat but this does not mean that your trading is risk-free. In fact, when the carry trade unwinds, due to changes in central bank interest rates (like in 2008), people will lose on ALL their carry trades, no matter the different amount of pairs they actually have. If you want to trade for interest, you need to realize that what you are doing is playing a fundamental game which will change players as the economy changes. The carry trade is NOT a set and forget strategy, you need to stay on top of the interest rates and close your positions as the gap between interest rates becomes lower.

You also need to take into account your exposure to changes in the currency pairs. Always trade such that you will not buy more lots than what you have in your account. With 1:100 leverage this means that you need to reduce the trading size by a factor of 100. For example, if you have a 1000 USD account, instead of trading 1 lot which equals 100,000 USD, trade 0.01 lots which equals 1000 USD. This way you will be absolutely covered and you will only get wiped out if the currency pair you get reaches 0. However you can increase your risk a little bit more to 0.02 meaning that you would only get wiped out by a 50% variation of the currency, something which is also very unlikely.

The best moment to start investing in a carry trade is as soon as the swap becomes positive. When this happens people start to put money into the carry trade and you are in for a long term ride, however always consider the above risk statements and have your account ready for draw downs which WILL happen when you take a carry trade. Also remember to exit positions when there are signs of economic turmoil, which may happen every 6-10 years. It is of the utmost importance to always have in mind that the carry trade is a fundamental strategy and as such it demands constant vigilance over economic conditions and interest rate differentials.

If however you are not interest in the carry trade but you would like to know more about my automated trading systems and how you too can learn to program your own long term profitable trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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FOREX INFO

FOREX INFO

Forex forex news and info greatly affect the price, the price that dramatic can happen when there is an unexpected event occurs. These events can include higher interest rates from central banks to political events or activities of the war. Nevertheless, it is often not the event itself that drives the market, but expectations of an event that created the market movements. So that the movement would seem to be a trend. Is the trend going up or going down trend. Very interesting to try playing from the influence of foreign exchange forex news.



Well .. There are some news that many influential foreign currency against the USD:

1. Average Earning>> Up>> Stronger
2. Balance of Payment>> Up>> Stronger
3. Budget Deficit>> Down>> Stronger
4. Business Inventories>> Down>> Stronger
5. Capacity Utilization>> Up>> Stronger
6. Car Sales>> Up>> Stronger
7. Chicago PMI (Purchasing Management Index)>> Rise>> Stronger
8. Spending Constuction>> Up>> Stronger
9. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)>> Rise>> Stronger
10. Consumer Credit (CI)>> Rise>> Stronger
11. Consumer Price Index (CPI)>> Rise>> Stronger
12. Consumer Spending (Expenditure)>> Down>> Stronger
13. Cost of Living>> Up>> Stronger
14. Current acount>> Down>> Stronger
15. Corporate Profit>> Up>> Stronger
16. Deflation>> Up>> Stronger
17. Discount Rate>> Up>> Stronger
18. Durabel Goods Orders>> Up>> Stronger
19. Econimic Monetary System (EMS)>> Rise>> Stronger
20. Factory Orders>> Up>> Stronger
21. Federal Budget>> Up>> Stronger
22. Federal Reserve Fund>> Up>> Stronger
23. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)>> Rise>> Stronger
24. Gross National Product (GNP)>> Rise>> Stronger
25. Housing Start>> Up>> Stronger
26. Industrial Productions>> Up>> Stronger
27. Invisible Trade>> Down>> Stronger
28. Jobless Claims>> Down>> Stronger
29. Leading Indicator>> Up>> Stronger
30. Money Supply (M1, M2, M3, M4)>> Rise>> Stronger
31. National Association>> Up>> Stronger
32. (NAPM)>> Rise>> Stronger
33. Non-farm payrolls>> Up>> Stronger
34. Personal Expenditure>> Up>> Stronger
35. Personal Income>> Down>> Stronger
36. Prime Rate>> Up>> Stronger
37. Product Price Index (PPI)>> Rise>> Stronger
38. Public Sector Debt repayment>> Up>> Stronger
39. Retail Sales>> Down>> Stronger
40. Trade Balance>> Up>> Stronger
41. Trade Devicit>> Down>> Stronger
42. Trade Weighted Index>> Down>> Stronger
43. Unemployment Rate>> Down>> Stronger
44. Unit Labour Cost>> Up>> Stronger
45. Value Added Tax>> Up>> Stronger
46. Visible Trade>> Up>> Stronger

Do you all have been proved that picture above .. I take this data from several sources ..

I want to trade forex with news as a combination teknikel which I use for this ..
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Does Hedging on the same currency pair Really Exist A Look at Position Holding in Forex Trading

One of the things I consider the funniest about forex traders is that they seem to have a strong opposition against the removal of "hedging" from their trading capacity. However few of them do realize that the traditional hedging we have seen where you buy and sell a given currency pair at the same time is merely and illusion and that in reality it doesnt exist or -for that matter- make any real sense. On todays post I want to talk about the concept of hedging, why it simply doesnt exist in reality and why any strategy that uses this concept can be implemented without its use. After reading this post you will understand better that hedging a currency pair by having open long and short positions at the same time is not possible in the real market and you ll see how you can actually understand what you are doing when you have this on your account and how it can be implemented within your strategy to have the exact same results without ever having more than one position opened per currency pair.

What is hedging after all ? In general it refers to the taking of opposite positions with a certain degree of correlation that offers some protection against side movements in the market. So for example going short EUR/USD and short USD/CHF is bound to guarantee some protection against variations in either currency pair since they are heavily and negatively correlated. However since the correlation is not 1 the actual effectiveness of this hedge depends on market conditions and - when correlation is temporarily lost - such hedges become extremely dangerous.

However, when people in the MT4 community refer to "hedging" they generally talk about having a long and short position opened at the same time on a currency pair. For example they open up a long on the EUR/USD at X price and then a short afterwards to cover up their loses or to "fix" some of the profit level they have achieved. Many traders who are not familiar with how the market works consider hedging absolutely vital for their success and the removal of this feature seems to be extremely unacceptable.

When we look close having a short and a long trade opened on the same pair is merely an illusion. What you are doing is buying and selling the same contract so if you were actually carrying out currency exchanges (of physical currency) you would have done the same exchange twice and ended up with what you started with (your ending net positioning is 0). It doesnt actually make sense if you think about it and the way it has been implemented in MT4 is practical in some ways but very misleading in others.

As a matter of fact, any hedging strategy can be implemented EXACTLY in the same way without ever having two positions opened in the market. For example if you bought USD/JPY at 85.54 then you want to enter a short position at 84.54 then exit the short and the long at 86.54 the same effect would be realized if you closed the long at 85.54 because closing the long is indeed what you would be doing in reality if you entered a short. The later point where you exit both the long and short is irrelevant since your net positioning from the open of the short is 0.

Case 1 ( Buy 85.54, Sell 84.54, Close both 86.54)

Long Result = 86.54-85.54 = 100 pip profit
Short Result = 84.54-86.54 = 200 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

Case 2 (Buy 85.54, Close 84.54)

Long Result = 85.54-84.54 = 100 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

So in summary it is now evident that the current "short and long hedging ability" in metatrader 4 is simply an illusion and that any strategy can be implemented which currently relies on this feature simply by taking into account the net positioning of the account. When shorts are entered they close longs and when longs are entered they close shorts. In the end this leads to the exact same effect as we would have had if we had simply opened all the short and long positions simultaneously since what matters is merely our net positioning in the market. This is the approach that really makes sense and falls in line with what would happen in a physicial currency exchange.

To sum it up, if you currently have a portfolio trading on the same instrument or if you are trading a system that opens longs and shorts on the same currency pair, dont worry about hedging as you can always implement your strategy using a net positioning approach, something we will all have to do once we move entirely towarsd metatrader 5.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code likely long term profitable systems using reliable trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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New Expert Advisor Portfolio

Today I realized that maybe it is not absolutely necessary to spend a lot of money to get some decent expert advisors. Based on my experience with myfxovereasy (which I reviewed earlier last week) I can say that there must be some promising free expert advisors out there.

I have always been aware of the free ea collection available at earnforex.com but I just saw the recently updated tests on the eas earlier this week. With these expert advisors optimized and the "perfect" conditions for their operation given I found no reason not to test them myself in a demo account and see what happens.

So I started a test of a complete free expert advisor portfolio. This portfolio has the following experts :

Framework : Which uses commodity channel indexes and strikes me as a medium term expert advisor.

Artificial Intelligence : Which is a neural networkish expert advisor.

Phoenix : Which is a short term sort of scalping expert advisor.

Binario : Wich is a long term expert advisor.

Myfxovereasy : Which is a trend following medium term expert advisor.

With all this expert advisors covering almost all types of market conditions (hopefully!) and reporting more than 10% yearly profit each (some reporting even a 15% monthly profit) I hope to have convincing results that suggest that this is the perfect expert advisor portfolio. Profitable and free !
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SPREAD BETTING Technical analysis on the Calendar Spread

             Investing in the Forex market and the stock markets, investors long, medium and short term make their investment decisions on the basis of two main factors. They suggest either fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Some traders use a combination of these two methods, which is obviously justified. The choice of investment method  depends on of many factors and it is a topic for an entirely separate post. Investing on calendar spreads traders turn their attention chiefly to factor that in many ways is not that important in the investment in those markets .
         
           Technical analysis on spreads is less important due to the relatively low volatility spread markets. In the Forex market or the stock market instruments during the day sometimes change their prices by 100 pips a day. Therefore, it is important to technical analysis to capture potential turning points. Market spreads are composed of two outright price difference on the same instrument but with different maturities. For this reason, the volatility of these markets is generally very limited and could be divided into two markets moving pips a day, three to eight pips and eight to thirty pips per day.
         
           With that information, you can see that technical analysis is not so relevant. Prices simply changing very slowly and very often made ​​once the analysis is valid for quite some time. It is worth to analyze chart and know what is the sentiment of the market.

          Despite many different variables that differ outright charts and the spread charts it should be emphasized that techniczal analysis works both on outrights and spreads.
 
     

       To illustrate to intercede two graphs showing the two markets with different volatility calculated. The first graph shows that technical analysis is not necessary. Chart moves sideways, no major changes to explain the technical analysis. The market is played  bid / offer and the order will be made in about three latter stages.

                                       
                                          Photo 1. Low market volatility


     The second figure shows a clear variation. Here, technical analysis is the most reasonable. And the trend is clearly correct. Speculation on such a volatile market requires technical analysis - despite the fact that it is spread, the graph showing the difference in prices.


                                          Photo 2. High market volatility




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FOREX EXCHANGE

FOREX EXCHANGE


STOCK FOREX or foreign exchange Exchange (UK: foreign exchange market, forex) or is a type of trading or currency trading transactions of a country against another countrys currency (the currency pair / pair) that involve major money markets in the world during 24 hours Currency Exchange berkesinambungan.Didalam we play a number of capital so that we can play the forex and profit.

To be able to play in the Foreign Exchange you must have an account, which this account is used to access the Forex Broker anda.Sedangkan to make the forex account that you are even equipped with Bonus Free 5 Dollar Capital for learning to play the Forex.

Foreign exchange market movements spun from New Zealand and Australian markets which took place at 5:00 to 14:00 pm, continues into the Asian markets of Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong which took place at 7:00 to 16:00 pm, to European markets of Germany and the UK which took place at 13.00 -22.00 pm, until to the U.S. market which took place at 20:30 to 10:30 pm. In a historic development, the central bank of countries with foreign currency reserves that even the biggest can be defeated by the forces of free foreign exchange market.

According to a survey BIS (Bank for International Settlements, the worlds central banks), conducted in late 2004, foreign exchange market transaction value reached more than USD $ 1.4 trillion per day.

Given the level of liquidity and accelerating the movement of these high prices, foreign exchange has also become the most popular alternative because of the ROI (return on investment or return on investment) and profit to be gained can exceed the average trade in general. Due to rapid movement, the foreign exchange market also has a high risk.
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What would you like to know about automated trading

Last week, I announced that I am working on a new version of my forex automated trading ebook. This version is not only an update but mainly a full rewrite of my efforts to help retail traders out there in the world of forex expert advisors. Before finishing my new ebook (which will be released on July the 19th) I want to make sure I include as many things as I can that may help the retail trader out there know the ins and outs about automated trading.

For this reason I decided to write this small post. The objective of this post is to ask you, fellow traders (both novice and experienced) , what would you like to know about forex automated trading ? If you want to cooperate and help me bring quality information to the world of retail forex traders please leave a comment answering one or as many as you want of the following questions (you can also email me at ekans_@hotmail.com if you find trouble leaving a comment).
  • What has been the hardest for you in the world of automated trading ?
  • What specific things would you have liked someone to explain to you before you ventured into this area.
  • What questions do you find unanswered in your quest for automated trading profitability ?
  • What would you definetely like to know about automated trading ?
I would like to thank the people who take the time to answer these quetions in advance, your help will most likely make my ebook much better for both experience and novice forex traders. It is my goal that with this new version of the ebook many people will be saved from losing their money and will have a much clearer idea of how much and how money can be made by using automated trading systems. I will also probably use your answers to write a few blog posts about the questions mentioned above :)

If you would like to purchase the actual ebook at a lower price (you get all future updates for free, including the one commented on this post) or learn more about automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. Thanks again for your answers !
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Why There is An Expert Advisor That Works

For the past six months I have been very intrigued by who and what drives the prices up and down in the forex market. It is quiet obvious that retail traders hold just a small portion of the cake while funds, banks, exporters, importers and the like hold a much bigger chunk.

I have also asked myself if this people drive prices in a mechanical way. Is it predictable ? One of the most important questions for retail traders. Can we predict the direction of the market ? Or more specifically, can we consistently predict the direction of the market ? The answer - I think - is a shade of yes.

Even though we all have different opinions on the technicals and fundamentals of currency pairs, we all know what we all expect. I mean, for example in the case of a non farm payrolls release, we all think it will be say 100k, then it is 70k, there will unmistakably be a hike in the EUR/USD pair. It is all not because 70k is "good" or "bad" for the economy - although this may be aligned in some cases - it is because the market goes either with or against main trader expectations. This drives the market and people react predictably to this news events.

In the case of more technical situations I think the same may apply. People are psychologically predisposed to certain patterns on charts. This makes their appearance constant. People are used to feeling certain emotions once they see certain changes in price on a currency, then they react the same way they have always done. They will always see trends, retracements, breakout patterns and similar graphical figures.

Although I may not demonstrate conclusively that prices are predictable by means of repeating market behavior I may speculate that the fact that the same people are trading the same currencies on the same charts creates some sort of very complex pattern inside their conduct. People who grasp this pattern are successful retail traders. People who dont, well, they are the other 90% if you know what I mean.

My analysis so far, predicts that there may be an expert advisor that works on all market conditions. This is because an expert may - unless psychological factors in trading change substantially because of an event - trade based on the "pattern" given by currencies through human behavior.

And even though I have no way to know the nature of this pattern or implement it mechanically I know it is there, hidden amongst the price. Waiting to be discovered. Not all experts are doomed to failure, some may get the key to our psychology .
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The Retail Trader and the Expert Advisors

It seems like yesterday when I first decided to use automated trading systems to become a profitable forex retail trader. My life was becoming seriously affected by me taking too much time to manage my forex market positions so this seemed like a great opportunity to enjoy a day job free life style without anytime taken from my schedule. Boy was I wrong !

There is no doubt in my mind that this are the thoughts going through the majority of the new people trying to start to make a living from the forex market using automated trading systems, mainly expert advisors. People, just like me, start in this world with the hope that they will find an easy way, without having to learn or intervene too much, to be profitable in forex trading. My friends, you couldnt be further away from reality.

Ill tell you what happened to me, in the hopes that some of you can cut a few steps. When I started with automated trading systems I decided to buy the "flavor of the month" so to speak, that is, the expert that had been making money for a month and everybody was hyped and talking about. To my surprise (yes, at that time I was surprised!) the expert advisor turned out to be completely different from what I was promised. After a few months, it brought my account to just a few dollars. And you guessed right ! I was angry !

Sure, that was a scam, but there should be another expert I could trust out there. It turned out to be, that most of the commercial experts out there, do not work. To my surprise, I ended up having to learn about triple of what I would have had to learn to be able to trade manually. On top of learning everything a manual trader needs to know, I had to get familiar with the mql4 language and start to really come in touch with what expert advisors really do and what can and cannot be achieved in the world of automated trading.

You really cannot cut corners in the world of forex trading, automated or not. There are hundreds of traders out there trying to catch that same dollar you are after so you really, really need a very sharp edge to get it. And trust me, a 100 USD trading robot does not give you that edge. The edge comes from knowing the systems, knowing their limitations, their strengths, knowing what draw downs to expect, really, really trusting your trading systems (something which is extremely hard to do with a system that you dont even understand and that comes inside a black box)

If you want to learn more about the free and commercial expert advisors I have used, reviewed and programmed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Forex Expert Advisors Fish Forex Robot an Unbiased Review

On another review I will be examining the Fish Forex Robot expert advisor today. This trading system- which was released a few weeks ago- claims to be able to generate 3000 to 4000 USD every month spending no more than 5 to 7 minutes a day "monitoring the robot". It also claims to be able to "double your account every month" a very bold claim which the author should be able to backup. Within the next few paragraphs I will analyze the trading evidence provided by the author and I will see if it is able to sustain her claims. I will also look into the experts trading tactics and I will tell you if the Fish Forex Robot has a high like hood of achieving long term profitability and whether or not it is worth buying and testing.

In the beginning you see a big box that tells you that you have two options. The first one is 3-4K of stable income from Fish Forex robot or vague promises of fortune-making strategies. However this is just very misleading and one of the marketing tactics I hate the most because it reflects a general LACK of knowledge from the expert advisor seller. You simply cannot mention any profit without mentioning the necessary intial capital investment. Do you get 3-4K from one million dollars, from 10 dollars, from 1000 ? It is absolutely frustrating to see these claims over and over again with absolutely no basis in real trading.

What we have from here on does not help the trading systems cause either. The seller shows us a backtesting equity curve that - surprise - is that of a Martingale showing how a 1000 USD account turned into 19,000 USD in just a little bit more than 6 months. The backtesting chart and the statements show a five fold increase in lot size with every loss, telling us that not only the system uses progressive money management but it also has a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio. Cleverly all the places where we could infer the risk to reward ratio from have been blurred and all we have to actually think this is the case is the fact that a five fold increase in lot size merely recovers the last loss pointing to a 4:1 risk to reward ratio which - combined with a progressive money management system- is definitely a time bom.

Then we have a "live trading statement". Please, this statement is merely a joke. Anyone could put up an html and makeup that statement and then blur it. If this seller is serious about showing profitability then she should include a REAL live investor-access verified account that TRULY showed live-updated trading results that we know are obtained from a real account with real money. This "live testing evidence" which - even if real - is extremely limited, simply does not contribute to any proof of profitability. What does the seller want to hide ? Why not risk her own money to show the "consistent income" her system can make ?

What we see in the case of the Fish Forex Robot trading system is nothing but a system with a seemingly very unsound trading tactic that has absolutely no reliable evidence of profitability. The author hides backtesting statements, denies 10 year backtesting results, blurs "live trading results" and does not even risk her own money to show us a live investor-access verified account. This system trades a very dangerous game and a few consecutive loses are bound to put you into VERY DEEP draw down if not an account wipeout.

Due to the fact that there is simply no evidence to backup profitability and the fact that the system uses an extremely unsound trading tactic with a very dangerous progressive money management strategy (five fold increase in lot sizes) I consider the Fish Forex Robot NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and gain a true education on how you can evaluate and be successful with expert advisors with sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Shark EA from forexeasystems a Possible System to Try

I guess many of you have noticed that I stopped forward testing many of the experts I had on my vps starting this year. The main reason is that they showed me a substantially negative behavior that made me change my opinion and in consequence, consider them not worth testing anymore.

Because of this, I am actively looking for some expert advisors to test, free or commercial. I have always been interested on the Shark EA by http://forexeasystems.com/ which is the commercial ea I know with the most extensive forward testing on record (by the seller).

I would like to know if any of you have tried this expert, what your results and opinion are and if you would like me to review the expert, if you think it is worth a try. I think it is but then I dont know anyone who has actually traded it. Well, I thank you again, I appreciate your feedback ! Please leave a comment with your opinion !

An updated review of my opinions about this trading system and my experiences trading it through 2008 (on live accounts) will be posted on September 12, 2009. Please check the Label drop down list on the left side menu and select "Shark EA" to read this review after the 13th. If you would like to learn more about my EA evaluation criteria, why most commercial expert advisors fail and how you can start profiting from automated trading system using long term profitable experts with real profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Bogie NN v8 Expert Advisor by William Boatright a Review

Today I decided to write a review about an ea that has been around for a while and has attracted the attention of many forex traders. The expert advisor I am talking about is the Bogie-NN-8v advisor developed by William Boatright. This ea is said to be neural network based and has managed to get profits in excess of 50% on some months.

Well, first of all, let me tell you, in my opinion, what Bogie is and what Bogie is not. Bogie is an automated trading system based on an indicator developed using a neural network approach, Bogie is not a neural network. What does this mean ? A neural network is supposed to optimize itself continously, that means, with each new tick, the expert should reevaluate and reoptimize itself to better adapt to current market conditions. A neural network, in analogy to your brain, should be able to "learn" from past experiences and therefore increase its possibilities of trading the market profitably.

Bogie does not do this, the expert advisor does not continuously optimize itself but is based on an indicator developed months ago which is now, most probably, obsolete due to changes in the way market conditions have changed. To compensate for this, Bogie has to be optimized, that is, some parameters have to be changed in order to adapt the ea to current market conditions. The problem, as you may infer, is that the ea is always being adapted to some period of time before the present which may or may not represent current market conditions.

In essence, trading Bogie is like flipping a coin, if your parameters are aligned with current market conditions you will make money, if you dont you will lose (very volatile, you can expect +/-50%). This type of approach for an expert advisor is unreliable as it is true that expert advisors can remain profitable without constant optimization, which is, anyway, like guessing current market conditions. When do you reoptimize ? How do you know it works ? You cant know.

Furthermore, the use of the NN indicator is completely pointless since it can be replaced by any other market indicator. You can always optimize a variation in any indicator and correlate it with price as you would with the Bogie indicator.

In my opinion, although Williams intentions with this ea are good and I believe him to be an honest person with the retail trader in mind, the expert advisor simply does not work, its approach is flawed by design since the ea is not really a neural network and the optimizations needed are not guaranteed to improve the experts performance. If you want to see how Bogie has performed on forward testing and learn more about reliable and profitable commercial and free expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Forex 101: An Educational Guide for Beginners



New in the Forex market? This market may sound really complicated and scary to tackle but it's not. Just like in any kinds of trade, you make money when you buy low and sell high. Forex trading is simply trading currencies in the Forex market.

Forex is the largest financial market in the world. It generates trillions of dollars of currency exchanges everyday and it operates 24 hours a day and seven days a week therefore, also making it the most liquid market in the world.

In the world of Forex, trading in this very liquid market is very unique compared to other financial market like stocks. Since the Forex market operates 24 hours a day worldwide, which starts at Sydney and ends in New York, trading is not centralized in one location. You can trade in Forex whenever you want regardless of the local time.

In the past, Forex trading was only offered to large financial institutions, like banks. And, it was also only offered to large companies, multi-national corporations and large currency dealers. This is because of the large and extremely strict financial requirements the Forex market imposed. This means that individual traders and small businesses are not able to participate in this liquid market.

However, in the late 90s, Forex was made available to individual traders and small businesses. This is due to the advances in the communications technology. High speed internet made it possible for people to enter the Forex market and have become one of the best make money at home businesses.

Forex trading is getting more and more popular each day. Besides, who wouldn't want to trade in the largest and the most liquid financial market in the world? Trading in Forex will certainly give you the opportunity to earn a lot of money. However, trading in this ever liquid market also has its risk. It is a fact that many people who traded in Forex lost a substantial amount of money and some of these people are seasoned traders.

This is why it is very important for you, as a beginner trader in the Forex market, to have the proper knowledge and education on how to trade in the Forex market. Firstly, there are hundreds or even thousands of available websites in the internet that offers Forex education. Some of these websites offer dummy Forex trading where you can practice trading in the Forex market using dummy money.

These programs will really take you closer to actually trading in Forex. Many experts say that you'll never really understand how Forex really works until you traded in the market. So, if you want to learn how to trade Forex, you may want to sign up for a dummy account that numerous Forex trading websites offer.

With a dummy account, you can trade Forex by not using real money at all. With this program you can practice your knowledge and skills in trading in the Forex market and not waste money.

To get started in trading in this market, all you need is a computer with a high speed internet connection, a funded Forex account, and a trading system. These three simple things are enough to get you started in Forex trading.

In order for you to minimize the risk of losing money, you need to have some basic knowledge in charting before you start trading. In most Forex trading systems, Forex charts are there to assist you with your trades. Forex charts are a visual representation of the exchange rates of currencies. This is where you will mostly base your decisions to buy and sell currencies. You have to learn how to read the different Forex charts in order for you to successfully trade in the Forex market.

Each Forex chart is different although they represent the same fluctuations. For example, in the daily Forex chart, you can evaluate market trends in the past 24 hours to help you make decisions on the next 24 hours of trading. In the hourly chart, you can use this chart to spot trends within the day. And, in the 15 minute chart, where it can help you recent currency fluctuations in a 15 minute interval to help you decide on which currency to buy and sell. Sometimes, there are 5 minute chart available to better help you get closer to the action.

These are the basics on how to trade in the Forex market. Always remember that aside from the promising earning potential that you can have in the Forex market, there are also underlying risks that you have to consider. It is therefore wise to trade in this market with a proper investment plan and strategy. If you are just starting out to trade in Forex, consider opening a dummy account to help you practice trading Forex without risking money.
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Join me On Twitter !

Today I had a good idea which I think will put me a lot more in touch with all my website visitors, customers and fellow traders. I have decided that from now on I will use my twitter account as a way to further improve my contact with everyone who has any interest on this website or my projects. For those of you who are not familiarized with it, twitter is a sort of "micro public blogging system" in which people exchange small messages. If you add me to your twitter you will receive my messages and if I add you to mine I will see yours. Think of it as being with 5 million people inside a stadium and being able to choose who you want to listen to.

Twitter brings a great opportunity I had not realized before, it will give me the opportunity to hear your opinions (and you to hear mine) on real time while we interact in the world of forex trading. From now on, those of you who want to hear more about me and my projects can add me to your twitter account. My twitter username is danielfppps :-). What will be published on my twitter account ? I think I will try to focus on publishing the following information which may be interesting for fellow traders. I will :
  • say when new ebook updates are available (including new videos)
  • talk live about the trades I am taking on my S&R trading Journal
  • say my opinion on any fundamentals that may have just been released
  • talk about Watukushay FE trades
I think that this will be a great opportunity to interact and get to know the people who visit my website and care about my opinion. Of course, if you would like me to add anything else to my twitter schedule please leave a comment and Ill make sure I take it into account. Meanwhile I hope that if you are interested you start to tune in so that we can learn more about each other and this great journey that is forex manual/automated trading.

If you would like to learn more about the trading systems I have programmed or how you too can be profitable in the long term with reliable trading systems that will not wipe your account please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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CIMB Padini Planitu

In response to a readers request, Im writing this for sharing purposes only.

The followings are my personal views, there are for educational purpose, not intend for any form of advice.

Plenitude (RM1.99, PE 6.1, NTA 2.91, DY 4%)

Short term outlook: Trend:double top forming; MACD:losing momentum; Stochastic: turning down from overbought position; OBV: turning down but stabilising could indicate possible side way trend.

Medium & Long term outlook: Trend: down, bounded by 200day M.A. as strong resistance.


Padini (RM1.09, PE 8.5, NTA 0.43, DY 4%)

Short term outlook: Trend: sideways although its above 200day M.A., because it dipped below 200d MA and emerged from it, hence it is likely to go through some consolidation phase before the next move.
Indicators: MACD, OBV & Stochastic shows signs of loosing momentum
Volume: low as price move lower, so its a positive note here as investors are still willing to hold on to the stocks, despite a shooting star on Dec 5th.

CIMB (RM6.89, PE 13.6, NTA 3.37, DY2.9%)


For CIMB Ill use Ichimoku to analyse. From the chart, CIMB underwent a steep fall in its share price since August. Currently, the price is moving into the cloud (in blue), this shows some consolidation taking place. Short term wise (within 1 month), the price may move between RM6.60 - RM7.80, by end of Jan - mid Feb, there might be a bigger move, if the price move above the cloud, it is bullish, if it dip below the cloud, its bearish. Keep our finger crossed!

Above are just the technical aspects, and its rather short term. For a bigger picture, we need to look at the industry outlook as well. For example, Padini in the garment manufacturing sector may face more weakening in profits due to global recession. As for Plenitude which is in the property sector might face similar situation when the property market cools down. Among the 3 stocks, I like CIMB most because I believe it is in an oversold position, the chances of a rebound is high in the short term.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong


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Forex Expert Advisors Fx Genius Robot an Unbiased Review

After doing some online research today I found an expert advisor which had been suggested to me for review in the past but which I had put aside because at the time I did not have enough information to put up a well informed opinion on the trading system. Today I have finally decided to write a review about the fx genius robot from which I now have enough information to review. This review will focus on the evaluation of the creators claims against the evidence provided by him, after this I will be able to give my full opinion of the EA and tell you whether or not it is worth buying or purchasing (in my opinion). More over, a friend of mine who bought this system let me analyze it so I was able to checkout its logic and trading mechanism, reason why I have some very interesting insights on this system which I did not have before.

The claims this EA creator makes are nothing short of absurd, turning 100 USD into 170K USD in 51 day is nothing short of a holy grail. It is evident that we have to luck deeply into all the evidence provided since such claims are extremely unlikely to be true given the fact that a system that generated such capital would have a huge market exposure.

When we start to unravel the results on the website we find that the EA is what people would call a "true scalper" that is, an EA that often takes profits in less than a minute and within 2 times the spread of the currency pairs it trades. We also find out that most of the results on the website are from demo, not live accounts. This is a very good reason to be suspicious since demo vs live performance for a true scalper would be extremely different since true scalping often suffers from excessive requotes, slippage, etc.

Now the fascinating part about this expert advisor is the concept in which it is based. Looking at the EA manual and system I find that what the EA does is what we would define as "arbitrage". What the EA does is take the price feed of a "fast" broker and then compare that to the broker in which its trading. When price moves in one direction in the fast broker and fails to move on the "slow" broker, the EA places a trade in that direction and cashes out fast. The EA is able to foresee the future due to an inefficiency caused by the different feeds among different brokers.

Can this mode of trading generate such huge income ? Sure, if it was possible to do this in the long term it would do for sure. However there are many many problems associated with this approach. The first one is that "fast" brokers are generally ECN brokers, and "slow" brokers are generally bucket shops with a dealing desk. The problem is that a bucket shop will not allow you to truly scalp, they will most likely fill you with requotes, slippage, etc before they let your trades go through. An ECN would allow you to scalp but its feeds are the fastest so you wouldnt be able to find a "faster" feed from which you could use the concept. Is there a certain brokerage combination that would generate profitable results in live trading ? Well, you would have to open hundreds of live accounts on different bucket shop/ ECN pairs and find out which one allows you to do this type of true scalping in an endless fashion. Most slow brokers will block accounts that show this behavior during the short term and they even wont let you withdraw the profits you made.

Is such an approach likely to be long term profitable ? I find it highly unlikely since it is based on a purely technical inefficiency of the market (technical in the sense of IT not in the sense of technical analysis). Most likely you will not find a single broker pair that will let you profit from such an arbitrage setup. Sure, on demo you will achieve very profitable results, live trading with regulated brokers will be a totally different story. Of course, even though I find such an approach ingenious from an "idea" kind of way, I believe that trading must be based on sound principles that will with the highest like hood generate a return in the long term. the Fx genius robot is not the case and at 2000 USD, it is too steep of a price to pay for such a an unsound way to profit from the markets. Chances are you will never find any broker pair that fit this trading method.

I would recommend you spend your time searching for more long term profitable trading system, here or on other websites you consider aim for this target. If you would like to learn more about the long term profitable systems I develop and trade please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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A Possible Ebook About Automated Trading in The Forex Market

The objective of this post is just to get your opinion about something I have been thinking about for the past two weeks. I have had the idea of writing an ebook about automated trading. This including my personal experience with several experts, my backtesting and forward testing results (with analysis of course), my views on free experts, commercial experts, setup explanations and profit/loss potential. The idea would be to guide someone completely new to automated forex trading towards the best free and commercial experts as well as explain the real profit or loss possibilities in forex automated trading. I would like to make it concise, about 20 pages, but very informative to novice traders who want to consider automated trading seriously. As always I would maintain my non-affiliate status with all commercial expert makers to remain unbiased throughout the whole process.

My questions for you are very simple. Would you be interested in paying for this ebook ? How much would you be willing to pay ? What would you like for it to contain ? What are your doubts and questions about automated trading ?

Last but not least, I would like to thank in advance anyone who comments and leaves his/her opinions about my proposal. Happy trading !
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Free Profitable Expert Advisor Gods Gift 7c

For those of you who have not read previous posts about Gods Gift, it is a free expert advisor coded by Matt Edmonds which I have been testing from January 2008. I stopped publishing results on this website since the ea is a very infrequent trader and it took it several months to accumulate a good amount of trades. Now I will show you my results for this free, profitable, expert advisor.
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As you can see on the graph, the ea has performed very well for the past 9 months as it has been predicted by its backtesting. The expert has very good market entries. With about only one entry per week, this ea enters the market only on high probability trades. I have to say, I thought this ea would blow up the account by June but it has indeed surprised me by banking profits as expected. Up until now, the ea has a profit of about 50% with a maximum draw down not exceeding 10%. The ea uses a fixed stop loss and it seems to have a low risk trading style. This is the type of ea you would like to use for consistent, long term profits.

Even though the amount of time is significant (9 months) and enough to say this ea is extremely likely profitable (has survived drastic changes in market conditions), I have to tell you that, as with any automated trading system, you should trade it with care and at your own risk. If you wish to get the settings and the expert advisor from me you can either buy my automated trading ebook (which contains information about many commercial experts) , subscribe to my weekly newsletter (which comes with investor passwords for live and demo accounts) or simply buy me a cup of coffee using the link on left bottom side of my webpage and Ill be glad to send you this information to your email ! (this is to support the vps in which the ea is run and keep me awake :) ) Thanks in advance for your purchases and donations !
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Why There is No Universal System Differences Between Currency Pairs

Can we build a system that trades successfully on all forex currency pairs ? This has often been a question of the automated trading system world that simply asks if there is a universal inefficiency, an inefficiency that is so common that it can be found an exploited on all different currency pairs. Up until now, the answer to this question has been a resounding and unequivocal NO. To the best of my knowledge no system has ever been developed to work on all currency pairs despite the claims of many system sellers who tell you that you can use their systems on all of them. But why has it been impossible to build such a system ? Why does trading all currency pairs seems like such a big challenge ? The answer lies within the very fabric of the market and the way in which the different currency pairs trade and react. Within the following paragraphs I will explain to you some of the basic aspects of these currency pair differences and why it makes the creation of any universal system extremely hard if not impossible.

You may have been told that inefficiencies in the market arise due to crowd behavior- which is a human characteristic- and that all currency pairs in forex show it to some degree. When you hear this it becomes easy to think that if a system "really works" then it is bound to work on absolutely all the instruments available in the currency market. After all, every instrument is bought and sold by humans and this would make them inherently inefficient.

Certainly if all instruments traded with the exact same number of people and with the exact same objectives we would be able to easily find a universal inefficiency but the matter of fact is that this is not the case. The first dramatic difference between instruments is the number of participants and the inherent liquidity of each currency pair. Some pairs like the EUR/USD are very liquid while others like the GBP/CHF dont have 1/10th of the liquidity of the former so their price action is dramatically different and the inefficiencies within it become dramatically different. The less people who trade a given pair, the more efficient it becomes since crowd behavior becomes less pronounced and individual decisions start to play important roles.

Then we have other differences that also make the movements of currency pairs different. For example if you are trading the USD/JPY and there is a negative trade balance against Japan then there will be a given fixed amount of money each month that will pull the USD against the JPY just merely because of business transactions that have nothing to do with speculation. The volume of these transactions is very significant and the time in which they are processed and their magnitude will have an impact on the way in which a pair moves.

Many other factors such as central bank intervention and even cultural differences play an important role in the way in which a pair moves when compared to another and all of these factors help to explain why the finding of universal inefficiencies is so hard. However when you look at higher time frames (daily and beyond) there seems to be some coherence and this is the reason why some systems that target month or year long trends manage to exploit the same inefficiency on several different currency pairs. However the success of these systems along the whole portfolio is never total and more often than not there are very strong differences between the profitability of different currency pairs and several pairs where the systems simply do not work.

So will we ever find a global and total inefficiency ? I would have to say that probably no, but if there is a chance it will take a lot more liquidity on all instruments and a lot more market participants to make this the case. Certainly in the future if the market volume on the illiquid currency pairs increases enough we might be able to have - even though not a truly universal system - at least systems that will have better success along different currency pairs.

If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can build your own likely long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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The Gods Gift ATR Challenge Testing by Third Parties

One of the great challenges of any automated trading system out there is to be robust, reliable and profitable. Since I want the gods gift ATR expert advisor to become the most well documented expert advisor out there I have decided to take several steps to make this automated trading systems characteristics very well documented, examined and tested. For me, an expert advisor that is truly long term profitable should fulfill a small set of characteristics that demonstrate its capacities :
  • Trading Platform Independence
  • Broker Independence
  • Extensive Live Testing (1 year at least)
  • Third Party Live testing
Since up until now all tests on this ea have been done by me (one year of forward testing of the main strategy plus 4 months of live testing on 4 different live accounts) I have decided to ask some of my newsletter subscribers to participate in what I have called "the gods gift ATR challenge". What I seek with this challenge is to have third parties test the expert advisor on live accounts under agreed conditions that guarantee that the ea testing is well done and comparable to my personal tests. The use of different brokers, different vps providers and money amounts should provide us with a wide amount of information about this experts profitability. The people participating on this challenge are aware that past performance does not guarantee future results and they do this testing under their own free will with no promise of profitability. They run the ea on personal live accounts to which I only have read-only passwords. However the people running the tests must fulfill some conditions :
  • Expert advisor must be run 24/7 on a reliable vps provider
  • Expert must be run alone on a live account with a minimum of 100 USD (10,000 contract) or 1000 USD (100,000 contract)
  • A read-only investor password MUST be provided
  • The ea must be run for at least 2 years, regardless of performance (people must agree to do this or their testing will not be taken into account)
  • Settings, currency pairs and timeframe are to be provided by me and cannot in anyway be changed by the third party if results are to be comparable
If you are participating on the Gods Gift ATR challenge please make sure you fulfill the above requirements and then send me an email. Please include your read-only password as well as the contract size of the account you are running, broker, account size and one of this three risk levels : Conservative, Moderate or Agressive. I will then send you settings as well as metatrader publisher instructions so that your results can be updated live to my ftp so that we can all share the test results.

Up until now more than 5 people have expressed a strong interest in doing this testing so if everything goes as planned, in a year from now we will have extensive reliable testing about this expert advisor and we will learn a lot about how it trades, how robust it is against market conditions changing and how we can improve it.

If you would like to learn more about this and other expert advisors I have tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article
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The Indicator Series The ADX beyond a trend range filter

I have to say that from all the indicators I have used in my career as a forex trader, the ADX (Average Directional Index) is the tool I dislike the most. The reason for this is probably because most traders have become accostumed to viewing the ADX as a range/trend condition filter when this is far from being an accurate use of this trading indicator. People who develop automated trading systems generally use the ADX to filter out trades (which I have learned is not a good approach) generating a global loss of statistical significance with a very small -if even present- improvement in profitability. On todays post I am going to talk to you about this indicator developed by Welles Wilder, I am going to go into its mathematical origin and into how it could be used successfuly for the creation of automated trading strategies. As always the most important thing is to understand what the indicator is telling you and how this information can be used to exploit tradable market inefficiencies.

First of all, the mathematical calculation of this indicator is not as straightforward as others since this tool has many different components. The Average Directional Index indicator is made up of three lines called DI+, DI- and DX. The lines are calculated according to the formula you see below (where the true range is mainly the highest value between the averages calculated, include the average of the close prices (current close - last close) of the N indicator period):

DI+ = Average of X periods [Current High - Previous High]/(Average of X periods of the True range)

DI- = Average of X periods [Current Low- Previous Low]/(Average of X periods of the True range)

DX = 100 * ((DI+)-(DI-)/(DI+)+(DI-))

So what is the indicator telling us ? Mainly the higher the values of DI+ or DI- the higher the difference between the current and past highs/lows becomes relative to the largest movement observed within the current and last candle X period average. However note that DI+ and DI- are not normalized and therefore we can only interpret them relative to each other. A higher value of DI+ over DI- indicates that in average higher highs where achieved while a value of DI- above DI+ indicates the opposite. The DX - which is normalized - compares the difference between DI- and DI+ and tells us what percentage this difference represents from the sum of both indexes. The value of DX will be higher as the difference between DI+ and DI- becomes larger effectively showing that during the past X periods the market has shown a prevalent movement in one direction.

The fact that the DX value seems to be related with prevalent market movement then does not imply that we can define trends/ranges clearly from the ADX. There are two reasons why this is mainly not a good use of the ADX indicator. First of all, the DX line is comparative meaning that if we have a quiet market period with low volatility but a steady up/down movement the indicator may interpret it as a trend. The second problem is related to the fact that you would have to select a "level" to use as a threshold between "ranging and trending" conditions, something which cannot be easily done. Usually if you attempt to enter trades in favor of "the trend" when the DX value is high you will find that the trend has already happened and you are just entering too late.

The ADX indicator however can be used to detect retracements given the fact that it can detect when a weakening from a previously strong trend has happened. For example, if the ADX reaches an extreme value (indicating strong market momentum) we could simply wait for a weaker DX value and enter the trade in the direction of the trend when the trend has apparently "ceased". Of course, we will enter upon a retracement, within a very good position to take advantage of future movements. Such a case is exemplified within the following chart.
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As you see, the ADX indicator can be used for this type of purpose successfuly, not taking into account any range/trend filtering characteristics which are generally attributed to this trading tool. We take advantage of the fact that the indicator signals "what has already happened" and we use it to enter trades in favorable positions to exploit a tradable market inefficiency. Of course, developing a mechanical trading strategy based on this concept would require the development of additional closing criteria and trade analysis (to see which DX levels are adequate) but such an approach is bound to be a good start to develop a long term profitable strategy based on the ADX indicator.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you can use systems developed with market adaptability and sound trading in mind to achieve long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Forex Expert Advisor Forex Insider Pro an Unbiased Review

Today I am gonna focus this post on the review of the forex insider pro expert advisor. As you know, all my reviews are as unbiased as they can be since I dont receive anything for giving good or bad reviews for any expert advisors. I have absolutely no affiliate links or any other ties with commercial expert advisor sellers. I just call them like I see them. The forex insider pro expert advisor is given a great projection by its creator with the following bold remark :

" Let My Robot Be Your Slave To Make Money For You NON-STOP Even While Youre Fast Asleep!"

Well my friends, I never judge expert advisors just by the claims they make, I always judge them by the way in which they backup their claims and the evidence they show us to do so. Looking at the forex insider pro expert advisor, you will see that this expert has absolutely no evidence for any of its claims. he says that the expert is able to trade with a low balance and a low risk and make huge gains. Where in the world is the evidence for this ? I dont see a live testing statement that can even show us how this expert trades on the market.

I mean, I would hire a money manager without looking at at least several years of his track record. Why would you demand any less from an expert advisor if it is actually going to manage your real money ? Well, this guy doesnt show us anything. All we are looking at are some very simple backtesting screenshots that dont even have adequate modelling quality. Needless to say, we dont know even if the expert has a high likehood of having important one minute interpolation errors because we cannot see any statements that point to how this expert trades.

Are we supposed to buy something that does not even prove its claims ? Absolutely not ! As I always say, the burden of proof is with the creators of the systems. This system of course, as you see, is absolutely NOT worth buying and it would take at least a 6 month live account with backtesting to match consistency to make me change one letter on this review. However, I am always opened to changes in my opinions if expert advisor creators support their claims adequately.

If you would like to learn more about forex automated trading systems, how to evalute them, what their characteristics are and how to really trade profitably with realistic profit and draw down targets using expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !
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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Triad an unbiased Review

Today I am going to focus on the review of the Forex Triad trading system which was requested last week by a newsletter subscriber. This expert advisor claims to be a "system so robust & powerful it can instantly identify winning trades, transforming you into an expert in every market condition no matter what your current level of experience is... Guaranteed". For sure, the first thing that went to my head when I read this was "they should better have the evidence to backup such a bold statement", of course, after analyzing the whole website I soon arrived to some very decisive conclucions about this trading system which will be discussed in the following paragraphs.

The Forex Triad trading system is part of a group of pure hype expert advisors that have multiplied like ants for the past year. Throughout the whole systems webpage there is nothing but talk, talk and talk with little evidence to backup the things they say. This guy is pretty bold to say that his system is "guaranteed" in any sense as there is not even a single glimpse of proof that can even hint to any of this guys claims being true. For example, this person says that the forex triad system is able to work under any market condition. I am sick of reading this over and over again, why would a person say something works under every market condition when this is NOT proved anywhere ? There is simply no proof ever showed by the guy that tells us that his system is able to do this. Moreover there is not even proof that his system is profitable at all.

The creator of this system just goes on and on about things with no importance and then shows us some charts with "sample trades" and "testimonials" as evidence of a systems profitability. This type of evidence is what I like to call "soft" evidence because it does backup a systems profitability claims when hard" evidence (like verifiable trading statements) exit but by itself it is nothing but an illusion. I could go into metatrader and make those charts in 15 min, I could also write 6 fake testimonials in 5 minutes. Who says this guy is not ? Also, this guy should be aware (if he is no experienced in forex trading) that a few trades are NOT enough to know how a system works, in fact, thousands of trades are required to know this, specially if you want to prove your system works under EVERY market condition.

This type of sales page and the fact that there are people trying to sell systems out there with outrageous claims and NO proof of profitability is something that makes me angry. I wonder how many people have fallen prey to this guy and have actually lost their hard earned money trading this thing. I mean, if there is no evidence for profitability it is probably because the system loses money. If the webpage has a few months, the guy should have at least a few live tests on different brokers and a 10 year old backtest to prove his claims. If he does not, then maybe the evidence was not so "in tune" with the sales pitch. Dont waste your time with this system, it is absolutely, in my opinion, NOT worth buying.

If you would like to learn more about how long term profitable systems are really traded, tested, evaluated and how you can start to make money with realistic profit and draw down targets in the forex market lease consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Event Announcement

There will be an investment talk by PAULINE YONG followed by an autograph session at Bookfest Malaysia 2009 @ KLCC Convention Centre in August 2009. The details will be announced later.
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Making Easy Money on Global Forex Trading



There are different forms of business. But the easiest way of making money is to trade forex. One of the leading providers of forex trading in real times basis is the global forex trading. It started out its operation since 1997. It gives chances to individuals to trade forex online on real times and it offers an opportunity to most forex brokers to earn millions each day.

Global forex trading is currently serving over one hundred countries. It uses the DealBrook FX2 software and provides twenty four hours access on the forex market. It is also equipped with the highest quality of consumer service which is widely available in the industry of forex trading. The forex brokers are given the opportunity to have an access on the prices of over sixty currency pairs and provide analytical services from renowned experts. The traders are also updated with the latest news bulletin on currency status and available forex charts. Global forex trading is the only provider of trading platforms on forex suitable for beginners as well as professionals.

There are various advantages when trading forex. It is very accessible since it is open twenty four hours besides having the most liquid market. The leverage strategy is always available wherein the traders have the option in using a 100:1 leverage. This reduces the need for larger capitals that is to be opened on the traders account. Forex trading has no commission and the trading is widely available over sixty currencies all over the world. Forex trading is globally available that is why the traders have wider trading opportunities regardless of any market conditions.

Don't assume that forex trading is only for big investors because of the given advantages. Global forex trading have open the way for smaller transactions. In this way, both small and big investors are given the opportunity to gain profits from trading forex.

In rare cases, some people assume that the market for global forex trading dwarfs the equities. However, this is not true because the volume of forex trading even exceeds two trillion dollars each day. So, global forex trading is considered the leader in the field of competitive market exchange. There are several reasons why global forex trading is very exciting.

- The forex market is widely available. The traders can trade currencies twenty four hours a day, seven days a week regardless of its fluctuations. This provides greater market opportunity for traders compared to equities which can only transact business on market hours or when stock exchanges are available.

- The global forex trading potential leverage is astounding. Compared to stock trading, the trader can either trade with the money that they have or open margin accounts and double the leverage when trading. Take for example, you funded your margin accounts with 25,000 then you can control an equity position of 50,000. But in global forex trading, your original capital can obtain leverages up to 20, 50, or even 100 times.

In this manner, the traders can open a forex brokerage online with only 5,000 dollars and can control positions up to 200,000 dollars or above. And if the trader can fund an account with 10,000 dollars then he can control positions up to 500,000 dollars. So, whether the trader can only gain 5% on the positions, then it would still be equivalent to a 25,000 dollars gain with only an initial capital of 10,000 dollars.

- There are lots of traders in the forex market. However, even if it is possible to earn fast profits, the risk of losing is also very high. That is why the technical and fundamental analysis of forex markets is very important. It is advisable for traders to get forex education to have a good start. It could increase their chance of becoming successful forex traders. The traders should guard their business from potential losses.

Global forex trading is indeed a high speculative endeavor. Keep in mind that the traders who are successful in trading forex are those who are methodical, have strong controls over their emotions and impulses, fault-analytical, and disciplined. The traders can really earn big profits in just a few days of trading, it will grow as the time goes by, however only avoid making any mistakes.
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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Combo System an unbiased review

The Forex Combo System is an expert advisor that claims to be a proven professional trading system which offers long term profits. The subject of todays post will be to review this trading system according to the evidence given by the authors. As always, my comments on this expert advisor are as unbiased as they can be as I receive no compensation for giving either positive or negative remarks about the system.

The forex Combo system is devided into three different expert advisors which follow scalping, breakout and countertrend trading strategies. The webpage is pretty straightforward and takes us directly to the evidence of profitability for this trading system. The first thing that we see are backtests for the past 3 years for each one of the trading systems. I have to say two things about this, first, giving results in pips is an absolutely misleading way of showing profits (as the actual result we are interested in is actual percentage of equity and how this relate to pip values depends on money management) second, the levels of profit this guy talks about are absolutely irrealistic. Unfortunately it is this type of system that drives most people to say that metatrader backtesting is completely "worthless" and that people should only listen to live testing evidence. Of course, in cases like this, backtesting seems to be flawed because of a) the strategy has serious problems with interpolation errors because it enters trades midbar or b) the strategy has been designed purposefully to overexploit hindsight. Both of this things should be explained by the seller and the values are completely unrealistic and are NOT true. The system shows the classical behavior of a system that exploits a backtesting failure with huge profits and very smal draw downs. It has been shown that when this type of systems are brought to live trading they fail heavily.

The creator of the expert advisor also shows us some very limited live testing information which was suspiciously only carried out for two months. Given the fact that this was started in march and we are currently in septemeber, this guy could have approximately 6 months of live testing. Why doesnt he show them ? the truth is that he probably doe snot because the evidence did not favor his sales very much. Probably the system started to fail after the first few nonths and he therefore did not dare publish the results on his website. I mean, if I were him, I would have trouble sleeping. How could you sell something to people which you know by a fact, is NOT profitable. Talk about being unethical.

If he stopped the testing because he just didnt feel like testing anymore then how the hell can you sell something to people that you dare not trade with your own money ? There is just no way out of this, once you publish live testing you must keep on publishing it indefintely or otherwise it casts serious doubts on both the profitability of the system and the ethics of the person selling it. In my opinion this is just a worthless trading system like many others which has a backtest that is totally worthless and some very limited live testing that is only there to impress people who are easily caught by the idea of heavy profits (which unfortunately can be many).

Of course, this system is totally NOT worth buying and I would advice anyone who finds a system like this to just run away. However, if you would like to learn more about expert advisor evaluation and how you can stop losing and start a long term profitable relation with automated trading lease consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Becoming Successful in Forex When There is NO Time Tips for the Family Guy with a Full Time Job Part No 2

On yesterdays post we talked about the disadvantages people have when they attempt to become full time forex traders or even simply successful traders when they have full time jobs and families that take up substantial amounts of their time. Near the end of the post I pointed out that patience and a long term look are bound to be absolutely important to the success of a person in this situation and I also said that exploiting strengths and reducing weaknesses was also an important part of this journey. On todays post I will elaborate on the more practical aspects of this advice and I will lay out a plan that you - as a person with a full time job and family - can follow to become successful in forex trading in the long term.

Many of you may be asking how I came up with such a plan if I dont have a full time job nor a few kids to make my life a lot more complicated. The truth is that even though this is not the case my advantage is that I know what has to be done to become a successful trader even if I did not do it from the above mentioned situation. This has allowed me to extrapolate what I learned to device a plan for people in such a situation. Of course, I would not bother to tell you this plan if I had not put it into practice before, something I have been doing for a while with a friend who has a wife, two kids and a full time job. For the past year this friend has been executing my plan to the letter and his results have been very good - a positive evolution towards a long term profitable trading outcome. Certainly he is not even close to quitting his day job but he made profit this year and did not wipe his account (a true achievement for having such a small amount of time !).

What was the plan he followed ? When he asked me to help him become a successful trader I told him about all the disadvantages I talked about in yesterdays post and I said to him that he had to approach trading in a very particular way to achieve success. Since I knew he had no clue about what he needed to do I laid out a plan for him so that he could go towards long term success in trading with under 5 hours of work each week. This is what I advised him to do :

Forget about short term trading, to trade one hour charts you need to stay at least 5-8 hours a day in front of your computer, to trade even smaller time frames you need even more time. If you attempt to trade short term charts when you get home tired at night you will definitely only get frustrated and lose.

Learning is the top priority, understanding what you are doing is the most important part of trading success. I told him to dedicate 2 hours each week to go through learning material and through its application. I encourage him to read classical book in currency trading and technical analysis and to actually PUT that knowledge in practice over visual backtests of at least 5 years of data. Often people read a lot but they fail to apply the concepts and knowledge they acquire.

Daily trading systems, perhaps one of the most important things I told him to do was to start trading daily systems and STICK with them. I encourage him to do evaluations of several different daily systems and to stick to those that had profitable long term results. He ended up trading a very simple MA cross based system on the EUR/USD. One pair, one decision each day, efficient, trend following trading.

Keep a journal. I told him that keeping a detailed journal of his trades was VITAL. Since the system traded once every few weeks it was actually quite easy to do this and visual backtesting analysis of his systems became CLEAR.

Learn to program. I said that evaluation is a significant part of success and that coding was an important thing to speed up evaluation. I insisted that he spent one "learning session" every month to learn how to code on mql4. The result was that after a few months he was able to start coding and backtesting his simple daily trading strategies.

Profits, for now, do not matter. When you start trading everything seems to be about the profits. I told him that profits are the reward for learning and that the first thing you wanted to do was learn and then profits would come. I advised him to just trade the systems he designed and evaluated without concerning himself with "last trade was a winner or a loser" or "I have lost all the trades".

So to sum it up, what you need to do is to approach trading in a way that exploits your strengths (your willingness to become a successful trader) and diminishes your weaknesses (lack of time). Putting a very strong emphasis on education and focusing on the evaluation and trading of daily strategies seems to be the best way for people who have "very busy lives" to start to become successful traders. Certainly it will take a few years to get there but the road is much easier, much clearer and much more rewarding than attempting to trade at a play field where you will most likely lose. By using systems that require little baby sitting and just a few quick minutes of analysis my friend was able to go from not trading at all to becoming at least a person in a clear path towards long term profitability in forex trading.

I hope that the above article has been helpful to all of you who are facing this situation of wanting to become successful trades with little time to do so :o) If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how they can be used to achieve profits in trading through understanding and sound design please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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Forex Killer More Strategy

The past few days have been quiet moved for my Forex Killer strategy. I tested some hypothesis I had concerning the trading setup and so changed some parameters pertaining to it. I tried to test the reliability of forex killers signals without looking at the daily trend. I have to say, quiet disastrous results. Three trades I placed on Monday with apparently high success probability (higher than 75%) failed. This, of course, is due to the fact that the signals were generated at the pinnacle of a retracement. Apparently forex killer mistakes retracements for trends when they extend for medium (4-6 hour) periods on the hourly charts. The result is a high probability signal followed by a sharp reversal which quickly triggers stop loss orders.

One of the trades, however, was in agreement with the daily trend. So what happened ? It seems that the stop loss given by forex killer is suitable for the hourly ranges of less volatile pairs. More volatile pairs, like jpy crosses, trigger either stop loss or take profit targets five times faster than USD pairs.

As a consequence of this trades, I decided to implement a modification to my trading strategy. I will not trade jpy crosses anymore as this would require an increase in the stop loss which I am not willing to take. This also diminishes the time it takes me to analyze pairs, to about 5 minutes.
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I also wanted to share with you a trade I spotted a few hours ago. This trade on the USD/JPY pair, showed high probability and coherence with the daily trend. I hope it illustrates my trading strategy better so that you can better benefit from what I have learned from forex killer.

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