Forex Manual Trading Systems Forex Cash Factory an Unbiased Review

A few days ago, a newsletter subscriber asked me if I could review a manual trading system called "forex cash factory". On todays post I will do an analysis about this system taking into account the evidence provided on the products website. I will also give my opinion about its usefulness and how much I think it could help manual traders become long term profitable. Finally, after doing all my analysis I will tell you if I believe this product is worth buying or testing or if it is just another product which is filled with promises but fails to deliver any realistic results.

The website starts with nothing but bold claims about the system being able to "pump" tens of thousands of dollars every week out of the market. After this we see that the forex cash factory website is nothing more than a few thousands words of a guy telling us to buy something just because it can make us rich. The webpage is definitely geared towards people who are new to the forex market and are definitely looking for a way to get money quickly.

The author of the forex cash factory fails to give many important descriptions about his system. There is absolutely no mention of the profit or the risk targets of the system, no mention of the money management used when trading, no mention of the characteristics of the strategy, etc. Why would anyone buy a trading system they know nothing about ? The guy fails to explain if his system relies on scalping, swing trading, long term trading, etc. There is simply almost no information abou tthe actual trading system included on the website. The author could have written the webpage without any product because product description is extremely limited.

There is also absolutely no evidence about the profitability of the system or its ability to even produce one USD on the forex market. The thing I find the strangest is that the guy does mention on his website that the system WAS actually tested on a real account for three years before selling it. Why in the world doesnt this guy show this evidence of profitability if it does exist in reality ? Come on ! Who would refrain from posting such evidence if it is obvious that it would increase sales enormously ? No one would ! The fact remains that until the evidence is not posted, it may as well not exist, there is no reason to believe it does.

Then what about all those testimonials ? I can also sit down and makeup whatever testimonial I want, testimonials do not mean anything, specially when a "testimonial" is just a bunch of text there. All the testimonials could have been written by the author, there is no doubt about that. What you should ask for when looking for a trading system, either manual or automated, is not simply a 2000 long sales page telling you how good your life will be after you make the purchase but solid evidence showing that the system has been profitable in the past and has a high like hood of remaining profitable in the future. Why is this evidence never shown for manual trading systems ? Well, mainly because the systems usually only work for one thing, bringing the author sales profits.

In the light of the total lack of even a general description of the system and the absolute lack of any performance record of the system when there is even mentioning that such a record exists (which means that the author is purposefuly hiding it or making that up) I consider the cash factory manual trading system not worth buying and testing. If you want to know more about trading system and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable automated systems with realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 19.30 0 komentar

The Doubleplay Forex Expert Advisor

When I began my quest to find an expert advisor that did well in a broad variety of market conditions I was very confused by the overwhelming amount of expert advisors available. After reading and searching for reviews all across the world wide web I found what appeared to be a good and well recommended expert advisor. Hence, I bought the Doubleplay expert advisor.

The Doubleplay expert advisor is what appears to be a very solid and conservative expert advisor. It fits my trading style, having a 50 pip adjustable stop loss and also a risk management module which makes sure that I never risk more than 5% of my account on each trade.

I have been very satisfied with this ea. It has traded as promised and has delivered some profit throughout the three months I have been using it for. I have obtained about 40% profit, which hits a quiet high profit/loss ratio. Support has also been absolutely wonderful, every doubt or support question I have had has been answered promptly by Hal, who is the eas creator.

As much as I like this expert advisor, bear in mind it is NOT a way to get rich quickly. If you ask me I would say that this expert advisor is a PROFITABLE expert advisor, but I would never expect more than 10% a month in ANY case. This was proved by this ea having almost doubled my account along the beginning of October and giving more than half back just a few weeks later.

I have complete faith in Hals commitment to the Doubleplay project, with no doubts in my mind that his main goal is to be successful as we are, not to deceive his customers in anyway. Doubleplay also has a money back guarantee if you have two consecutive months of losses using the ea.

This ea is one of the few I do personally RECOMMEND with no ties whatsoever, neither as an affiliate or as a personal friend of the eas creator. This ea would fit great as a conservative addition to our ea trading package.

This expert advisor can be found here.

Diposting oleh Unknown 09.46 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Espionage Unbiased Review

A few days ago I received an email talking about the forex espionage expert advisor. Of course, the purpose of all these emails I get is to make me click through the affiliate links and buy the expert advisors. What I do most of the time is review the products instead so that people can know my opinion about most new expert advisors (I try to review as many as my time schedule allows me to). If you have read many of my reviews the truth is that I very rarely consider an expert advisor worth buying.

Well, I must confess that the forex espionage expert advisor is really not the exception. I can see the marketing all over it like on most commercial expert advisors out there. The website greets you with a video of a guy who obviousy treats you like you dont know a thing about forex trading or automated trading systems. The video and the website features many claims about profits, backtesting and as always the promise to free you from your 9 to 5 job.

Ok, so what is the validity of their claims ? They have many problems to start with. First, most of their claims are based on backtesting statements which we know are done with the benefit of hindsight so absolutely no validity there. They also show us some very limited "live" testing information which has no live account investor access and is truly excesively limited to pass any judgement about the expert advisor. If you are a commercial expert advisor seller or an expert advisor reviewer that lives from the affiliate links please have this in mind : dont treat your customers like their retarded !

The forex espionage expert advisors seems to be your average commercial expert advisor that aims at trading many times per day with several short term wins and incredible backtesting results but fails to work in the long term (the only thing that grows in the long term is the number of wiped accounts). The creators never mention the problems associated with backtesting and limited live testing results. They just want to convince you to use something even if there is no evidence that the system works in the long run and there is also no evidence that the live testings shown are actually real. Again, we need live accounts with investor access to believe the claims of ANY commercial expert adviosr seller.

In summary, not only do I find the forex espionage expert advisor NOT worth buying, I also consider their website misleading and offensive to the intelligence of any potential customer. Expert advisor sellers not only should show more realiable testing, they should also struggle to explain every possible mistake within the tests they are doing.

If you would like to learn more about how to evaluate and choose expert advisor as well as about other expert advisors I have traded and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 01.31 0 komentar

A Proven Profitable Forex Expert Advisor

Ok, this is what all of you have always been looking for and probably the reason why you entered my website. You are looking for a proven, profitable expert advisor that you can trust and trade in your live account with the most minimal risk of large equity draw downs.

With all due respect : You are delusional.

Lets start with the facts. What do you mean by proven ? Someone has made money with it ? Someone has been making money with it for an x amount of time ? Many have made money ? It has made money on different brokers ? As you can see, the answer to this question is very difficult by itself. I will now make something clear to you which you may have already suspected and which may seem a little bit hard to read : There is no such thing as a proven system in the forex market and there is no such thing as a low risk expert advisor.

Yes, thats right. There is no such thing. This happens by definition, because the forex market is dynamic, ever changing and unpredictable in nature. Hence, it is what you would call a high risk market. It is high risk because (you guessed right) the risk of losing capital is very high ! And this cannot be avoided by using an automated trading system. There is no such thing as a low risk opportunity in a high risk market. If you expect to make money consistently, for years, in the forex market, using automated systems, without high risk, please choose another investment vehicle. Perhaps something less risky, like T bonds, would better fit your risk profile.

Does this mean that evaluating expert advisors is meaningless ? No. By testing expert advisors in live and demo accounts we can get an idea of how they work, under what circumstances they work, what consistent profit and expected draw downs we might get. This is because even though the forex market is unpredictable, it can be statistically studied. We cannot tell what will exactly happen, but we can estimate the probabilities and this is one of the things that tells a profitable trader apart from a failing one.

Lets say for example that certain automated trading system gets a 4% profit from 2005 to 2008 in live testing. We can look at overall market conditions and the past 60 years of market history and tell if they are likely to change, to what and what the probability of working would be if said conditions would change. Was the market in an uptrend ? Downtrend ? going sideways ? What was the volatility ? In essence, the longer an ea works, the more robust it it, that is, the more change in market conditions it can withstand. However, if market conditions were to change to something that did not happen for the last x years the ea was tested on, then it can fail.

This is were that disclaimer we have all read comes into play "past perfomance does NOT guarantee future results". Read it about a hundred times.

What is our defense against this ? Have more than one expert advisor, have a portfolio and have them on separate accounts, if all of them have been tested and are robust, when one fails, the most probable thing is that the other will not and vice versa. You need to diversify in automated trading because the systems have limited visibility, they cannot overcome big changes in market conditions due to their rather inflexible nature. Will every tested ea ever programmed have a period in which it will wipe an account ? The answer is, probably yes.

If you would be interested in learning a little bit more about my opinions, criteria and what expert advisors I have tested and consider worth trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 15.45 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Ripper an Unbiased Review

During this weeks search for new trading systems I came across the forex ripper expert advisor. On todays post I will write a review about this automated trading system focusing on the evidence provided by the author as well as the claims made on the website. I am going to analyze all the information and then give you my unbiased, honest opinion about this experts long term profitability and if it is or it is not worth buying and testing.

Wow, I have to say that I have read many made up stories in my life but the story given by the author of forex ripper really has a lot of imagination going on. It has the classic "I was ruined" with an "I am a pro" twist coupled with the appearance of this mysterious "ripper" guy from wall street who could "magically" turn a trading system into an ATM. Of course, the story puts up a lot of information which makes us doubt its truthfulness and even more, it makes us doubt the origins and actual worthiness of the trading system.

Why ? Mainly because the author of forex ripper does say that they were able to use the system successfully but no prove is given of live trading performance. This is another guy thinking that the people who buy trading systems are stupid. This person shows some pictures of trades which for all we know could have been hand picked and executed on a demo account with no additional information of profitability. I would ask this person, if the story is actually true, to show us ALL the live statements with investor access of the trading accounts he had when he started running the EA which should be months ago by now. The author of forex ripper definitely talks a lot but he shows no evidence to truly backup the claims made.

What do we have then ? We have a website with a story of a guy claiming a trading system is the best ever made (for a change !) with some partially blurred pictures of trading statements with no third party verified live statements or simulations to hint us about the long term performance or trading tactics of this system. From what I see I would guess that the author of forex ripper is just a programmer who came up with an expert advisor, then made a marketing pitch for it and put it up with a bunch of blurred pictures of hand-picked trades from a demo account to show "proof" of profitability.

This trading system is definitely miles away from proving profitability and even more, thousands of miles away from proving that the system has the slightest likehood of being long term profitable. If the author uploads the live statements (with investor access) of the accounts the EA has been trading in (according to the story) and also gives us 10 year backtests with a period in common with the live testing to check for back/live testing consistency, then and only then, will I redo this review to reflect this additional information. Meanwhile, this website is NOTHING but HYPE and I therefore consider this trading system NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about the automated trading systems I have developed and how knowledge and hard work are the key to long term profitability in automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 06.30 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Illusion an Unbiased Review

Going on with my review of recently released automated trading systems today I will be analyzing the Forex Illusion trading system. This expert advisor promises you will "beat the dealer" and achieve long term profitability in the forex market even if you dont have any previous forex trading experience or if you have "battled with forex" for a long time. On the following paragraphs I will go through this trading systems website, I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and I will tell you if this evidence is reliable enough to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. After doing this analysis and looking at the systems trading tactics I will then tell you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Illusions system website is actually quite odd since it lacks any of the usual "letter type" structure the general expert advisor selling websites have. The only thing you see when you access the website is a video that tells you the general "underdog story" and shows you the evidence of profitability available and the claims made by the author. The video is obviously targeted at forex newbies, as the author tries to sympathize with them, telling a story of how he "bit the brokers" and achieved millions of dollars in forex trading. The story tells us how the guy went from being a mail man to a millionaire.

Truth be told, this trading system just falls short on almost every aspect. The evidence of "live trading" that the author shows is nothing but a visual backtest of a period of just a few months which tells us absolutely nothing about this trading system. It is amazing that anyone tries to sell a trading system on such a small and just worthless piece of evidence. What does a few minutes of visual backtesting tell us ? Nothing ! Where are the full 10 year backtesting statements showing us the long term profit and draw down targets ? Where are the LIVE investor access verified accounts ? where is REAL proof of profitability ?

Again, another person attempts to exploit the new trader by making up a story, doing a visual backtesting of a strategy and pretending to have turned into a forex millionaire. If half of this guys story was actually true, he would have showed a LOT more evidence. This is an obvious lie, if all of this was true you would be looking at the guys personal trading statements or you would already have a live trading account with at least a few months of trading showing you investor-access verified results.

This is just a bold attempt to sell you something that is worthless with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability through a story you might empathize with. I think it is pathetic and I think that anyone who has any respect for the intelligence of their customers would have made the effort to open up live accounts, give investor access information and run 10 year backtests. Because of the incredible lack of evidence I consider this expert advisor absolutely NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can develop your own likely long term profitable systems with sound and realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 20.45 0 komentar

KLCI At Historical High

KLCI recorded another record high of 1629! As we can see from the chart above, there was a reverse head and shoulder formed during the period of April to mid June 2012. On June 19th, there was a breakout from this bullish chart pattern and now heading towards the price target of 1646.

While technical analysis tells you the possibility of near term price action, in a larger picture, we still rely on the fundamentals to give us a glimpse into the future.

The Euro debt crisis is still on, the politicians have not come up with the best solution yet. The concern is the bond yield (or the cost of borrowing) for Greece, Span and other debt ridden countries are much higher than their counterparts like Germany, Sweden and Denmark. For example, the 10 yr bond yield for Germany is below 3% while Spain is closed to 7%. It is believed that those debt ridden countries cannot survive with such high cost of borrowing and that they are suggesting the richer EU countries like Germany and Denmark to share the weaker countries debt burden by jointly issuing government bonds. By doing so, the borrowing cost of Spain and Greece is lowered while that of the Germany is raised.

During the recent Brussel Summit in June the above proposal did not materialized but instead a temporary measure is agreed upon. That is the 120 billion euros growth package was agreed upon during the 2 day summit with funding from the ECB to help solve the problem temporary.

In the US, concern is with the unemployment data that remain stubbornly high at above 8% but it is declining which is a good news for the US. In addition, the corporate sector is generating huge profits as products such as Microsoft, Apple, Johnson & Johnson etc are selling all over the world!

On a contrary, things are not looking good in China. Recently the Chinese data shows that the economy is contracting with weaker PMI and GDP data.

Hence we shall expect the markets to remain choppy until the situations get better in the EU and China.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Diposting oleh Unknown 11.30 0 komentar

How to setup install an expert advisor in MT4

Many people who are new to automated forex trading are puzzled by installation issues regarding the expert advisors for the metatrader platform. This easy to follow graphical guide will show you the simple steps necessary to setup an expert advisor for the metatrader 4 platform.

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1. Download your expert advisor file and indicators (if the ea needs any custom ones). These are either ex4 or mq4 format files, depending on if they are a source or a binary (precompiled file). There is no difference between these two classes as far as installation and usage goes.
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2. Copy your expert advisor files and indicator files to the corresponding directories. As it is shown in the following picture. Keep in mind that this directories are located under your metatrader installation path and that metatrader should not be running at this point.
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3. You should now open up metatrader. Open up a chart with the timefrime and currency pair in which you want to run the advisor. Now simply drag and drop the expert advisor from the navigator window as shown in the next picture.
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4. Now you need to check the live trading dialogue and change any settings you would like to modify on the expert advisor, as it shown. Also remember to click on the expert advisor button on the upper section of the program to allow trading.
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5. Now you should check that the expert is running. A happy face should show up in the top right corner of the chart you chose. If you see an x or a happy face it means you neglected to perform the last step (or didnt perform it correctly).
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Happy trading !

Diposting oleh Unknown 01.33 0 komentar

Measuring System Vulnerability The Market Exposure Index

If you have been reading my blog for a while you may be familar with my use of the term "market exposure", as a matter of fact, most of you may be aware that this is a concept I use most the time to describe trading systems and gauge their possibility to be long term profitable. But, what is exactly market exposure and more precisely, how can it be measure ? Well, those of you who are subscribed to my newsletter may already have seen the video I posted on the FTP about market exposure and how this is vital for the description of a trading system. However, since this concept is pretty important and mentioned throughout my whole website I have decided to dedicate todays post to the analysis of the concept and the formal introduction of what I like to call "market exposure index".

The first thing we need to do if we want to talk about market exposure is to define it. What is market exposure ? There are actually several ways to explain the concept but the simplest one is to think about market exposure as the magnitude in which your system becomes vulnerable to loses as a consequence of the opening of a position. That is, whenever you open a position in the market you are getting "exposed" to losing your money as the market can take a move against you. The vulnerability of any system against taking loses is what I call "market exposure".

Now that we know what market exposure is we are left with a more challenging task. How do we measure market exposure ? How do we measure the vulnerability of a trading system against the market ? The first thing we need to do is think about the factors that affect market exposure, what affects the exposure of a system against the market ? The most important things that determine market exposure are the systems risk to reward ratio and the overall winning percentage of the EA. That is, the probability to win a trade. You must take into account that these two variables have to be deduced from extensive historical or live testing as short tests could bring unreliable results. Also take into account that the probability to win a trade, is never 1, that is, there is ALWAYS the possibility to lose a trade. Stubborn systems, like grid trading systems that assume the market will always "come back" to achieve a profitable result eventually lose as, even though the probability to lose can be low, it is still present and the fact that you are putting your whole account balance at stake makes the system to eventually wipe your account.

So how can we measure market exposure ? This is the reason why I came up with what I call, the market exposure index. This quantity, which is expressed by a simple mathematical formula can tell us if the market exposure of a system is capped. The formula is very simple

market exposure index = 100*(fraction of losing trades)/(average reward to risk ratio)

For example, the gods gift ATR, GBP/USD has a market exposure index near 60. Any market exposure index below 100 implies that the strategy is profitable and adequately capped. Any result above 100 indicates that the system is unprofitable, the higher the market exposure index, the higher the risk of a wipe out. For example, Martingale systems, whose risk to reward ratio increases exponentially with every losing trade have a market exposure which is generally equal to equity over the fraction of profitable trades. Grid trading systems have the same risk to reward ratio, something which lets us know from the start, through the market exposure index, that those are strategies with very important market exposures that WILL cause account wipe outs in the long term.

Hopefully, if you liked the idea, you can start using the market exposure index as a way to gauge the viability of trading strategies and the way in which they protect your equity from the market. Strategies with very low market exposures are the best since ideal strategies would have a very low risk to reward ratio with a very high winning probability. Most of the time, the best systems have a compromise between these two things.

If you would like to learn more about trading systems I have developed and how you to can evaluate and trade automated systems profitably please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 15.45 0 komentar

The Indicators Series The MACD the Markets Speedometer

Todays post will be a continuation of my indicator series of posts which try to explain the mathematical meaning of different indicators and how they can be used successfully to create sound automated trading strategies. The indicator series aims to make emphasis on the importance of understanding the nature of indicators to really know how they can be used successfully in trading. Success when using indicators does not come from just "blue line crosses red line" but from a true understanding of the underlying relationship between the data displayed and the price charts your looking at. This post will focus on the famous MACD indicator created in the 1970s by Gerald Appel.

So what is the MACD indicator ? The MACD, or "moving average convergence-divergence" indicator is nothing more than an expansion onto the idea of moving averages. The indicator has many componente but originally Gerald Appel designed it to have only two : a main line and a signal line. The main line is the difference between to exponential moving averages and the signal line is an exponential moving average of this difference. The histogram, introduced in the 1980s in mainly the difference between the MACD main line and the signal line. The following is a small summary of the tradigional setup (12,26,9).

MACD main line = 26 period EMA - 12 period EMA
MACD signal line = 9 period EMA of the MACD main line
MACD histogram = main line - signal line

But what does this tell us ? I usually look at the MACD as an expansion of the moving average concept. As I told you on the first post on the indicator series - which discussed moving averages - the difference between two moving averages could be interpreted as a sort of "derivative" of averaged price action : A velocity. This is why I usually think of the MACD as the markets speedometer. The MACD main line tells us about the velocity in which price is changing while the histogram tells us the difference between the main line and the signal line which is a measure of the changes in the main line or also a measure of the acceleration of price action (a sort of second derivative of price action). (on a small note, the MACD in mt4 does not display the signal line, only the main line and histogram, they might have considered the introduction of the signal line redundant as crosses between this line and the main line are signaled by the histogram crossing the zero line).
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Traditionally the MACD is traded in different ways with most of them corresponding to different changes in price action. For example, a cross of the main line through the zero line simply means that the difference between the 26 and 12 emas is zero, that is, the moving averages are crossing. If you trade these signals it would be nothing different than trading a traditional EMA cross. You can also trade crosses of the signal and main lines which would mean that there is a change in the "velocity" of price action. That is, price movement in that direction is "slowing down". That would be the same thing as trading the cross of the histogram through the zero line, since the histogram signals the difference between this two lines. Now the best possible signals of the MACD would come from changes in acceleration, which would go before changes in velocity and would be the most early signals of the MACD. However the tops/bottoms of the MACD histogram are impossible to predict since usually several tops/bottoms can form before any meaningful change in velocity (a cross of the histogram through the zero line). An attempt to do this lies in trading the MACD histogram "divergence" signals with price, such trading is incredibly discretionary and not subject to automation.

Truth be told, the MACD, based on moving averages, has some of the same inherent disadvantages of these indicators with the advantage that the "speedometer" feature of the MACD allows for better entries into the market. However developing an automated trading system using a MACD is not that easy. Usually the problem is that the MACD fails under even only mildly volatile markets due to the sharp changes in velocity that the indicator lags behind. The MACD velocity signals (crosses of the histogram through the zero line) would probably be the best and easiest to implement in coding but a lot of effort must be put in using adaptive money management techniques and exits on MACD signals from a MACD with faster settings which may be able to get the system out of losing trades quickly. Definitely exits will be the most important aspect of a MACD based system. A combination of the MACD signals is also not out of the question. Do you have any ideas for an automated trading strategy using the MACD indicator taking into account all the above ? Make sure you share them with us on the comments :o).

If you would like to learn more about my work with automated trading systems and how you too can learn to develop your own systems with long term profitable results please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.45 0 komentar

FOREX BUSINESS

FOREX BUSINESS

BUSINESS FOREX Foreign Exchange Business is engaged in buying and selling of currencies, because foreign exchange business including an easy way to money that without outside capital. Because the exchange rate of a country against another country is always changing every second, we may buy or sell anytime in our money in BUSINESS itu.Nah FOREX market of buying and selling that we have a big advantage especially now there are no Foreign Exchange Business Exit Modal.Cukup List 5 Dollar Capital yours.

The movement of currency exchange rates continued to move and change at any time, no matter the day or night, no matter how clear the number of players Foreign Currency Business has never stopped.
The movement of the exchange value of the currency of a country against another countrys currency value moves online Real Time. Buying and selling currencies that aims to make a profit, eg buy rupiah with dollars or buy a dollar with the amount of any time in house prices and the price of money would change too. With the goal of price movements or changes in the value of our currency benefited as much as possible no matter how we want. Thats the simple description of this forex business. To further explore the Business Forex learned one by one article caramainvalas.com

Soon Business Register and Get Learning Forex Currency Trade with caramainvalas.com get a bonus equal to 5 dollars in capital.

Different Business with Money Changer Valas

Same but different Forex Trade was thin trading with the currency trading on margin (leverage) and two directions. Money Changer and no leverage and can not be both ways. Meaning: Business Forex more modern and easier while Money Changer traditional and more difficult to take advantage.

What Is Margin Trading and Sales and Purchase Two-Way

 Ntar deh first learning the other

Who Figure & Jawara Forex

Larry William (With capitalize $ 10,000 within 1 year just managed to generate a total profit of $ 1 million (around Rp 10 M) in the forex world race in a few years ago. And that is real money, real money is not a demo). George Soros (one of one of the 100 richest people in the world), obtained a wealth of Forex Trading. With his ability to pursue Forex Business.

Richard Dennis (At age 25 years) have become millionaires. Educate 13 students with the rules of turtles (Turtles rule) and 13 students into a Powerful Trader by applying the Rich Trading Strategy.

If the many who became rich and successful with your Forex business can also be right? Everything has a chance to be rich

How FOREX it BUSINESS?

His name also BUSINESS yes no goods no money .. Which is often traded on Foreign Exchange Business is 4 (Pair) majority of currency pairs namely:

GBP / USD = (Pounds Sterling) to (U.S. Dollar). That is (Pounds Sterling) are as goods, and (U.S. Dollar) are as money (purchasing tool).

Example:

1. GBP / USD = 1.5162 means: 1 pound sterling bought for 1.5162 U.S. dollars

2. EUR / USD = 1.3505 means: 1 Euro bought with a price of 1.3505 U.S. Dollar

3. USD / JPY = 90.35 (U.S. dollars) as of goods, and (Japanese Yen) For Money (purchasing tool).

   it means: 1 U.S. dollar bought 90.35 price

4. USD / CHF = 1.1450 means: 1 U.S. dollar bought 1.1450 Swiss franc price

How the hell CAN PROFIT FROM FOREX BUSINESS?

His name FOREX BUSINESS:

Buy when the goods are cheap (low value) and sold when the price of expensive goods (high value). The term took the position of Buy or Long and when the profit (price rise) in the lid: Close

FOREX BUSINESS also able to benefit by:

Sell ​​when the price of expensive goods (high value) and bought at cheap prices (low value). The term took the position of Sell or Short and when the profit (price drop) at the close: close.

Therefore It is called Forex Business can profit by buying and selling 2-way ... (nah question no. 3 is already answered in part)

Example:

GBP / USD: 1.4500 buy position-taking at the time

GBP / USD: 1.4550 close on profit taking

means to obtain the difference (1.4550 - 1.4500) = 50 Pip

(Pip = smallest unit of currency)

With 50 Pip my lucky number?

If you take 1 lot: the 1 pip = worth 10 Dollars

If you take 2 lots: the 1 pip = worth 20 Dollars

If you take 3 lots: the 1 pip = $ 30 Dollars

Buy my example with a value of 1 Lot: So Lucky me:

50 Pip x 10 Dollars = 5000 Dollars

What the heck LOT OF UNDERSTANDING

Lot / Unit: Unit standard contract in Forex Trading

Conversion of lots and units:

1 Lot = 100,000 units (1 Pip = U.S. $ 10)

2 Lot = 200,000 units (1 Pip = U.S. $ 20)

3 Lot = 300,000 units (1 Pip = U.S. $ 30)

HOW DO I DETERMINE THE POSITION IN ORDER TO BUY OR SELL PROFIT

By Analyzing the Market (Market). There are 2 Technical Analysis:

Fundamental Analysis: Predicting Currency price movements based on economic, social, politics of a country. Etc.. Fundamental analysis is a market mover (Price currency)

Technical Analysis: Predicting Currency price movements based on past data (Historical) with mathematical calculations. Technical analysis is a guide movement (the price of currency).

Fundamental Analysis

Example: You hear the news that the unemployment rate in Britain rose. Since many companies went bankrupt ... Consequently Currency GBP (Pound) weakened.

Before there was news:

GBP / USD: 1.5500 (1 pound = 1.5500 USD)

After the news:

GBP / USD: 1.4500 (1 pound sterling = 1.4500 USD)

When you remove the information in the news soon take a position "Sell" or "Short" and when the price goes down you get ready to take profits ... Close

On the contrary: You heard the news that in America a lot of bad debts owed housing ... many people can not pay ... as a result (U.S. Dollar) weakened

Before there was news:

GBP / USD: 1.4500 (1 pound = 1.4500 USD)

After the news:

GBP / USD: 1.6500 (1 pound = 1.6500 USD)

When news broke that the information released you immediately take a position "buy" or "Long" and when the price moves up you get ready to take profits ... Close

Where Can I Get Fundamental News

You can read the fundamental news each currency, but if you want speak Indonesian and have been reviewed by experts and analysts Forex .. Open it in www.financeroll.com Indonesia which is the best forex portal.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis using indicators. There are two general types of indicators:

1. Trend Indicators (indicating direction of the trend) Example: Moving Average, Parabolic Sar, etc..

2. Oskilator indicator (shown already oversold / overbought and over-Bought / over sell) If the market is already saturated with a sell-off sell the start time buying buy If the market is already saturated denan buying buy so from now buying sell. Example: relative Strength Index, Williams,% / R, oscillators, etc..

Jump To More Clearly ... Main practice on Forex Trading Forex "Marketiva". First Install Marketiva Trading Platform on your computer and online internet .. New we can start trading ... ..

Moreover, What You Need to Know For Beginners Forex Trader

Margin Trading System = Leverage Margin Once we have an account and transfer funds into our account then we have a margin account.Setiap time to take a position either buy (buy) or sell (sell) takes a certain amount of funds taken from the margin account as collateral (initial margin requirement .) Initial margin account depending on currency pairs, leverage is selected and the number of lots are taken.

Example 1:

Leverage 100: 1 or 1 / 100 x 100 = 1% Lot / Unit: 10,000

Buy position (long) EUR / USD 1.3340. Then the margin required is: 10,000 x 1.3340 x 1% = $ 133.4

Example 2: Leverage 200: 1 or 1 / 200 * 100 = 0.5% Lot / Unit: 10,000

Buy position (long) EUR / USD 1.3340. Then the margin required is: 10,000 x 1.3340 x 0.5% = $ $ 66.7

Example 3:

Leverage 500: 1 or 1 / 500 * 100 = 0.2% Lot / Unit: 10,000

Buy position (long) EUR / USD 1.3340. Then the margin required is: 10,000 x 1.3340 x 0.5% = $ 26.68 USD

Well no. 3 It is the responsibility of all ... if you do not understand as well .. Gak pa .. Pa. .. While trading .. Lama2 also understand ...

Understanding of margin trading for the management of trading risk management.

Moreover, What You Need to Know For Beginner Traders:

Determine How Dare You Take The Risk Capital Trading Forex From You ... .. 10%, 20%, 30% Decide How You Want To Gain Take Every time you are trading ... 5 Pip / Day, 10 Pip / Day, 15 Pip / day, 20 Pip / Day, 30 Pip / Day. 50 Pip / Day.

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Diposting oleh Unknown 19.01 0 komentar

Is Technical Analysis Important

To be frank, when I just started investing in the stock market, I thought fundamental analysis rules and that technical analysis is for short term traders. I was very wrong indeed!

Now if you asked me whether I prefer fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Ill say both! Under different market condition Ill apply them differently. For example, during the stock crash in August till now, Im looking at the charts every day, I also focus on the macro economic news, but less on the corporate earnings because the published corporate earnings are historical figures that may still look nice but its meaningless if youre at the market top (if thats your assumption).

However, during normal bull run from March 2009 to beginning of 2011, I focus more on coporate earnings than the charts because as long as the bull trend was intact, I do not bother so much about the daily fluctuations. While focusing on the corporate earnings, I pay special attention to EPS growth on a quarter to quarter basis. Most blue chip stocks have strong growth during this period, and so are their share prices.

As mentioned in my book, I Love Stocks, my favourite indicator is 20 day and 50 day moving averages to see the overall view of various markets in the world. Another technical indicator that I often use is the MACD, it is clear and absolutely suitable for our Bursa blue chip stocks.

Technical analysis is based on 2 important assumptions: (1) history repeats itself (2) the stock market is the sum of all behaviours of the market crowd. If history repeats itself, this suggest that by looking at charts, we may be able to forcast the future price movement!

Although there are over 200 technical indicators, but its not necessarily to know them all. As the saying goes: when using the indicators, you should apply "KISS" rule, meaning Keep It Simple, Stupid or Keep It Short and Simple, which ever it is, having too many indicators will cloud your mind.

Having said that, that doesnt mean knowing one or two is enough to help you make investment decision which involved your hard earned money! The following is the list that most investors would look at:
1. moving averages
2. MACD
3. Stochastic
4. RSI
5. Bollinger Band
6. Volume average
7. Fibonacci retracement
8. Money Flow Index
9. On Balance Volume
10. Candlestick
11. Trendlines
12. Price patterns (Head & Shoulders, double top, double bottom)

What a list!

If possible, you may try to understand some of the famous technical analysis theories such as the DOW Theory and Elliot Wave Theory. I hope Im not scaring some of you.

Knowing these indicators and theories is one thing, applying them well is another difficult task that requires certain amount of trading experience.

For me, I usually use fundamental analysis to identify the right stock and apply technical analysis to time the entry and exit for the stock. This way, Im applying both and Im quite happy with the results.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Diposting oleh Unknown 10.01 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Black Swan an Unbiased Review

Today I am going to fulfill another review request and talk to you a little bit about a forex automated trading system called black swan. Todays post will focus on the review of this expert advisor mainly by evaluating the evidence provided on the website and the claims made by the authors. By analysing the experts statements and the information provided I will also tell you my opinion about the long term profitability of this trading system and whether or not I it worth buying or not.

By first looking at the website, you will see that the black swan expert advisor seems to offer a novel approach to automated trading by offering its customers a "web bot" technology which is supposed to search on the internet data from many sources to make accurate trading decisions. The people at forex black swan claim that with this technology you will be able to achieve very large profits which will give you "financial freedom" and the ability have the life style you "always wanted".

Is there any merit in the experts techniques ? Is there anything true about this "web bot" technology ? There are several things I do not understand. If the EA uses a web bot system which dynamically searches the internet then how did they manage to do the backtest from Jan to Nov 2009, how did the webot technology "backtest" on the metatrader 4 strategy tester ? this just does not add up. If the expert really used such an innovative technology it is very likely that it could only be evaluated by live testing. But well, regardless of the fact that this technology does or does not exist, what does the backtest tell us ?

The backtest shown on the black swan website has many inherent problems. To start, the period is very small. Why didnt they do backtests from 2000 to 2009 ? Why is the backtest period limited to 2009 ? This are all questions which cannot be easily answered since doing a longer backtest is just easy to do. There is also the problem that the EA takes a small TP, below 20 pips, which means that interpolation errors in the backtest are likely to be a VERY significant portion of profitability, add to that the fact that the EA uses an almost 10:1 risk to reward ratio (you need to win one time for every ten you lose) and a progressive money management system and you arrive to a system which uses very unsound trading techniques with very questionable results.

My opinion from this backtest is that results are definitely going to be very different in live testing. Probably the loses will be far greater than in the backtest and the progressive money management will grow large holes into the account, to the point of a wipeout. Systems with progressive money management (incrementing lot sizes on loses) will ALWAYS wipe accounts, it is not a matter of if, it is simply a matter of when.

Another important matter is the absence of live testing on the black swan website. Why do this people fail to show live trading results if their system is so accurate ? Why didnt they take the time to put up a few live micro accounts to show us the performance of their system under real market conditions under several brokers ? The number of unanswered questions is simply great and there is no good reason why we should put our money where the creators themselves would not.

The complete lack of live testing evidence as well as the lack of any proof of back/live testing consistency, the absence of a 10 year long backtest and the use of progressive money management are the reason why I consider the black swan trading system NOT worth buying or testing. If you however would like to learn more about system that achieve long term profitability and how you can start your profitable venture in forex trading with realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 02.00 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Secret Agent an Unbiased Review

Today another expert advisor sees the light and with it another one of my reviews comes out. Within this post I will be talking to you about the recently released Forex Secret Agent trading system. I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence backs up the authors claims, I will also talk about the reliability of the evidence and overall, I will give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system will be able to achieve long term profitability. In the end, I will also give you my opinion of whether or not this expert advisor is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Secret Agent the James Bond of Forex systems ? Can it prove it can deliver massive profits ? Keep reading and find out !

I have to say that the tactic used to sell the Forex Secret Agent seems to be revolutionary in the sense that they are not advertizing the system as an fully automated system but as an "informative" tool which tells people when to enter and when to exit trades. I am very confused by this concept since it seems to me that trading a fully automated system would be much more convenient than having to manually confirm or enter trades when the system signals them.

Of course, the objective would be for the trader to actually confirm that the trade is sound and worth taking but wouldnt this mean that the trader is able to trade for him/herself and doesnt need the system ? If a person is able to determine when it is or it is not worth getting into the market then why would such a person need a signaling system ? If a person doesnt know and wants to follow signals then what criteria does this person have to confirm or deny trades ? In the end I think that the approach doesnt make a lot of sense and I believe that a fully automated system has more relevance when addressing a crowd that doesnt know how to trade but wants to trade from signals. Making the EA request confirmation on every trade or merely provide the information to enter trades seems like an inconvenience for most people.

It is worth noting however that a section of some backtesting results is shown later on the website pointing out that the system is able to trade in a fully automated fashion (at least it would seem from this). Then we have the usual hand-picked results taken from the backtests portrayed as actually live executed results, a very misleading and dishonest tactics which talks about the ethics of the Forex Secret Agents seller. We can also see that the backtesting statements - which are advertized to turn 5 into 200K in a year- have a VERY unfavorable 10:1 risk to reward ratio and a very small average TP meaning that backtests of this system are probably worthless and absolutely OVER estimate profitability. There is also a complete absence of 10 year backtests, something which also makes us doubt the long term profitability of the system although a system with such trading tactic doesnt probably offer reliable backtests anyway.

Then we have also the COMPLETE absence of any investor-access verified live trading results, showing us that the author of this system is not willing to risk his own money trading the Forex Secret Agent. If the author had actually traded the system - as he says he has - then it would be very simple to add that account to myfxbook and show us investor-access verified results. Why arent these results shown ? Because simply the author doesnt believe in his system and probably has never traded it, pointing out that it is much easier to make money in forex selling a system than from trading it.

Overall, the Forex Secret Agent is another over-hyped system with a complete absence of any reliable evidence. The backtesting evidence shown is not validated by live trading results and - more importantly - no verified live testing results are shown. The Forex Secret Agent is just a piece of software with no evidence of profitability and an author unwilling to test the system on his own live accounts. Remember that the burden of proof is on the author, NOT on your live accounts so if anyone should blindly risk their money it definitely shouldnt be you. For all the above reasons, I consider this trading system absolutely NOT worth buying or testing. The author should show at least a 10 year backtest coupled with a 6 month investor-verified live test and a backtest of this same period if he wants me to redo this review.

If you would like to learn more about the world of automated trading and how you can trade with a high like hood of achieving long term success using expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 17.30 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Robovore an Unbiased Review

Yesterday an Asirikuy member sent me an email requesting my opinion about a new automated trading system called Forex Robovore. This trading system is interesting since it seems to follow a different line of thought when compared to most of the other automated trading systems available on the internet. On todays review I will focus on the claims made by the author on the Forex Robovores website as well as the validity and support the evidence on the website gives to said claims. In the end I will be able to tell you if what the creator says about the system is supported by the evidence given or if it is simply not the case. With this evidence in mind I will also be able to give you my opinion about the long term profitability of this trading system and whether or not it is worth buying and testing.

First of all, it is clear that the Forex Robovore trading system has a different philosphy when compared with the other systems available online. The Forex Robovore system aims to have a very favorable risk to reward ratio of 1:2 to 1:4, giving us the impression that it was designed to take advantage of trend following moves. The trading systems sale page even includes a report which tells you why expert advisor scalpers are bound to fail in the long run in forex trading. I must say that I appreciate the fact that the creator of Forex Robovore is taking the time to explain that his system uses a different logic, it is also worth noting that the expert uses sound risk management in the sense that only a small percentage of capital is risked per trade.

However these are just words. The important thing is to know if the creator of the Forex Robovore trading system is able to show evidence to substantiate his claims. This is when we start to see the many holes in the evidence provided and how this trading system does not stand in a better place than most of the "other expert advisors" it so strongly talks about. First of all, we find that there are NO ten year backtesting results, showing us that the creator fails to carry out this readily available and easy to perform simulations. On the other hand, the creator says that backtesting can be done by downloading data from the metaquotes server. Therefore it is obvious that the author knows that these backtests can be carried out but yet FAILS to show these backtests on his website. Why ? The most common reason for this is the LACK of long term profitability of the trading system, the lack of profitable 10 year simulations.

Moreover, unverified live testing results of about 4 months are shown as evidence of profitability. I would have to say that four months are a rather small period of time to show as the only available evidence. It is also worth noting that the live results are UNVERIFIED and can be forged. It is VITAL to have live testing results which are confirmed by INVESTOR ACCESS to the trading account. The author says on the FAQ that you can tell a real live test by the configuration of the html file but this is WRONG, this CAN BE FORGED and investor access is the ONLY way to verify that a live trading record is REAL. Why isnt investor access given ? Are accounts not live but demo accounts ? Have the results been manipulated ? I see no other reason why an EA creator would refuse to post results on myfxbook which can independently and reliably verify investor access and trading privileges.

Overall it is sad to say that although the intentions of the Forex Robovore system creator seem to be to create a system with sound money management and trading strategies the trading system is not able to walk the walk. It seems that the website merely uses this "difference" with other trading systems as a marketing pitch without any evidence of the system truly being long term profitable. Because of the complete lack of 10 year backtests and the absence of verification of the live trading results I have to say that the Forex Robovore trading system is NOT able to backup its claims and it is therefore NOT worth buying or testing. If the creator of this trading system provides 10 year backtests with live/back testing consistency tests with the current period of live testing, as well as live account verification through investor access, I will be more than happy to redo this review.

If you would like to know more about what I have learned about automated trading systems and how you too can design and develop trading systems to trade profitably in the forex market please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.46 0 komentar

Watukushay No 5 The Aussie and the Kiwi More Encouraging Results

During this weekend I released the first official version of Watukushay No.5 coupled with all its 10 year backtesting data showing profitable results on 6 different currency pairs in Asirikuy. From my last post about this EA you might remember that Watukushay No.5 had been tested on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, however at that time I hadnt completed my analysis on two other currency pairs that also show us great results with this strategy despite their overall lack of liquidity, the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. On todays post I want to share with you some of the results of the EA on these currency pairs and how the EA is able to use a completely different trading technique to profit from the different trading mechanics of these two instruments.

As you may already know, Watukushay No.5 attempts to exploit breakout inefficiencies on the different currency pairs. On the 4 majors this is done by exploiting periods of low volatility when the currency pairs form significant ranges, entering breakouts when important moves develop within the following trading sessions. However, these trading tactics do not work well on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD, not only because they tend not to form areas of compact trading but due to the fact that this areas do not lead to successful or unsuccessful breakouts with any statistical significance. In the end if you try the same tactics as with the majors you will obtain slightly profitable results which are definitely not worth using in live trading.

Upon my analysis of these two instruments it became clear that I needed to think the problem from another perspective if I was going to find any profitable results for this EA on these two pairs. This meant going back to a meticulous analysis of the currency pairs and the way in which the medium and long term trends develop within them. After spending a few days working on this I finally realized that the key was to rely on breakouts of more volatile sessions but aiming at much higher take profit and stop loss targets. The idea was that this large breakouts do allow us to predict long term trend direction with a good statistical edge in the long term.

Backtesting results were indeed very encouraging showing me that my analysis had been right. When you exploit this different and larger breakouts on the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD, you obtain some very profitable results which are achieved as the EA is able to follow long term trends through the periodical entering of this large session breakouts. The effect resembles the accumulation technique used by the turtle trading system, allowing us to follow a trend and greatly profit from its long term direction. Below you can see a picture of how this trading works on the NZD/USD, notice how the EA got a lot of profit from a developing trend.
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The 10 year backtesting results also give us great results for both of these currency pairs. We arrive at results which have average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down targets better than Watukushay FE and the same as Teyacanani on the EUR/USD in the case of the NZD/USD. Surprisingly, the best trading results for this EA have been found on the NZD/USD, showing us the robustness of this strategy as a portfolio solution. The EA shows us its robustness and its ability to exploit two completely different market inefficiencies based on the same trading mechanics but aiming for entirely different things.
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Later today 3 live accounts with real money will be added to Asirikuy to start the testing of the system on the USD/CHF, NZD/USD and a full portfolio setup. Hopefully within the next year we will be able to gather some very useful information about its trading system, its tactics and its ability to tackle changing market conditions. The ability of this EA to adapt to each particular market situation and its very large set of adaptive parameters will probably lead it to succeed in this quest against market changes.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 23.01 0 komentar

The Moon And The Stock Market

Have you heard before that human tends to be emotional during the full moon? The reason why I want to talk about this is because statistically shown that mankind behaves irrationally during these periods and this will affect our decision making process in the financial markets.

A study suggests that a full moon really can bring out the beast in us, turning us into irritable animals.

While we may not actually transform into the bloodthirsty creatures of fables and movies such as An American Werewolf In London, research suggests we do display worrying symptoms.

A study conducted in Australia found that in 2009, 91 emergency patients with violent, acute disturbances were happening in one hospital north of Sydney.

According to the research, "some of these patients attacked the staff like animals, biting, spitting and scratching, and the patients had to be sedated and physically restrained to protect themselves."

Of course we can do another research on the crime rate and the full moon to confirm the above claims. But today I have done a small research on this topic and compare to our Malaysia KLCI and to see whether the moon does affect our stock market.

This research is about the distance of the moon to the earth and how this relationship affect our stock market. It is generally believed that people are more rational when the moon is furthest away from the earth, and the name for this type of moon is called "Apogee Moon". Another extreme case is when the moon is closest to the earth and we can see the moon big and round right infront of us, this type of moon is known as "Perigee Moon". It is this perigee moon that often cause people become emotional, anxious, and pessimistic.

So I did a research on the dates of the perigee moon and marked them on the KLCI chart. (The chart may be unclear but if you click the picture, it will be enlarged.)

Amazingly I discovered that the claim is about 86% accurate that the KLCI did experience local low during the investigating period.

On the other hand, theres a research done by FutureAnalyzer.com, they studied not only the perigee moon, but also the apogee moon (when the moon is furthest away from the earth). They discovered a high correlation between the "highs" and "lows" with the agogee and perigee moon. Most of the time, "highs" happen during apogee and "lows" happen during perigee! In other words, it means that "highs" happen when people are more rational while "lows" happen when people are emotional.

I hope this article is not trying to convince you that astrology is perfect, but just to highlight to you that these little researches help us to look at the stock market in different perspectives.

Happy investing,

Pauline Yong

Diposting oleh Unknown 13.45 0 komentar

My Life as a Currency Trader and I thought I would never say that

Today I want to write a post which has a more personal tone than the other posts you may have read on my website in the past. A few people have asked me about my daily routine and if trading actually leaves room to "free me" from the 9 to 5 life style and provide me with the ability to spend a lot of time with my friends, family, etc. Within the next few paragraphs I will tell you the story of my everyday life so that you can see how my life around automated trading woprks and if this is the type of life style you would want to have. I have to warn you that my life doesnt include monthly cruises to the Caribbean or driving a Porsche out of my drive way but I can assure you that it has many negative and positive aspects, like any other life style has.

I am a big believer in early mornings and I usually wake up sometime between 5 and 6 a.m, usually with the first ray of sunlight. After doing this I usually check my email and answer whatever questions, doubts or inquiries people have sent me during the night, this usually takes me about half an hour although I can get even 25 emails every day which require thoughtful and precise answers (I am a fast typer by the way !). After doing this I like to spend an hour checking on the markets and the systems currently being traded, I check on all my personal, asirikuy and third party accounts and I send emails to anyone who has an account with a problem in order to correct it ASAP (most of the time there are actually no problems). Then I like to watch an old time movie - probably in the style of Indiana Jones or Independence day - or an old episode of Seinfeld (my all time favorite show) while I do my daily 40 minutes of cardio (youre all doing this too right ?).

After this I cook my breakfast and depending on the mood I either spend the rest of the day working or I take the day off and go out to have lunch and spend the afternoon with my girl or my family (which includes hers). I usually work more than 60 hours every week (no kidding), making and preparing videos for Asirikuy, writing the weekly newsletter, designing new systems, researching commercial systems, researching systems developed in forums, testing systems, analyzing data, etc. I often tend to think that the fact that I dont have a 9 to 5 job is actually detrimental to my life in the sense that I tend to over-work a lot, since there is no 9-5 span of time which limits when I work... I just sometimes work all the time !

I do have to say that there are several things I like about my life style, one of the things I like the most is the freedom to cook :o). I love cooking and I have to say that I spend about 3 hours every day preparing meals for myself and my girl when she is home. I am by no means a great cook but I am improving and hopefully in the future Ill be able to eat delicious meals everyday, courtesy of cooking skills developed over years of training. It seems that most chemists end up being good cooks, hopefully I am not the exception !

Now there are other aspects I hate, and the most important of this is that I have no control over when I can be or not be available. Trading - either manual or automated- demands a great deal of focusing and control, it is not an option but mandatory to have a 24/7 internet connection you can use all the time and you cannot simple "get lost" as there are many people (in my case) which count on you and your expertise everyday. So I actually do not work 9-5, in a few ways I work 24/7 .

Maybe I am just a hopeless workoholic but I like what I am doing and I think (at least hope !) that I am making a difference in the sense that I am providing an honest and transparent approach to automated trading without hoping for any massive reward. The earning I get from Asirikuy and this website are quite small (I would have to charge about 50 USD for the subscriptions if I wanted to live from this !) but I think that all the work is rewarded in the sense that I get to live from trading my own systems, I get to improve them as time goes by and I get to do all of this without having to be dishonest, unethical or scamming any poor soul. Will I ever get burned out from doing this and decide to just live from trading and leave the stress of handling my small -yet very time consuming- business ? Hopefully with all the good feedback I get and the satisfation this generates me this wont be the case :o)

If you would like to learn more about my approach to profit from automated trading and how you too can learn to get realistic profits using sound trading strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 04.32 0 komentar

You dont have anything to lose What a fallacy !

In the time in which I have been reviewing and using automated trading systems I have come across a countless number of commercial expert advisor sellers and their websites. I would have to say that from all the things they say, one of the worst and most dangerous is their ultimate catch phrase "you dont have anything to lose". Today I decided to write a post about why this phrase is not only totally untrue but also exceedingly dangerous for new traders who dont know anything or too little about the way in which automated trading works.

First things first. The reason why this statement has become so popular amongst expert advisor sellers is because most of them offer money back guarantees. If you dont like their software after a given fixed period of time whatever money you used to buy the EA will be given back to you. So nothing to lose then ? right ? You buy the EA, you use it, if you dont like it, youll get your money back, no harm done, if it is junk you will get your money back.

Well my friends, this is a big mistake ! You have to take into account all the risks you expose yourself to when you buy an automated trading system. Since the objective of most people is to run the expert advisor on their live accounts for long periods of time, the long term profitability of the expert advisor plays a huge role. Take into account that most commercial junk experts out there are engineered to give you short term profits with a huge market exposure that will eventually cash on your account. If you are trading with your money and you lose it, you risk losing much more than the purchase price of the EA. There is no way in the world in which you should be able to know if the EA is long term profitable with just 6 weeks of testing which is what most of these experts offer as a long term guarantee.

So lets see. Joe buys the Superhype EA which has a 6 month guarantee. Joe trades this EA on demo for the 6 weeks and the expert has actually made significant profits, so no worry, Joe is satisfied with his product and does not want a refund. Now, Joe puts his real money on this EA and at month 3 of running it live the EA goes into consistent draw down and in month 5 Joe is down 85%. Joe lost the 100 USD that Superhype costed him plus 1000 USD he has on his live account. Nothing to lose ? Think again, you have everything to lose when you expose yourself to any automated trading system. The only thing that can give you assurance that this will not happen is to have an EA that fulfills well established criteria for long term profitability, something most commercial experts out there do not do (check my reviews to see what I mean !).

If you would like to learn more about how you can know which experts are long term profitable and how you can profit from automated trading using trading systems with realistic profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 19.31 0 komentar

Valuable Advice from Jim Rogers

The following is an extract from the recent interview by Investment U with Jim Rogers. He shared with us his valuable experience in trading, which I think is the best advice for any value investor!

Jim Rogers: I would say one lesson we all need to learn is that after you’ve had a great success, you really should be very worried. Let’s say you sell and say you’ve made 10 times on your money. You should be extremely worried. You should close the curtains, not read, look at the TV, or anything because that’s when you’re full of hubris, arrogance, confidence. You think, “God, this is something easy,” and you’re desperate to jump around to something new. You should do your very best to avoid making another play until you’ve calmed down a lot. Just wait. It’s a very dangerous time for any investor.

Likewise, if you take a huge loss and there’s a big panic and things are dumped on your head because you’re overextended or wrong for whatever reason, calm down, don’t say, “I’m never gonna invest in stocks again or commodities or whatever.” That’s the time you really should be willing to invest again if you can gather together some capital money. The investments can be terribly emotional. You have to figure out a way to control your emotions and deal with your emotions if you’re going to survive in these markets.

My advice is that, most of the time, most investors should do nothing. They should look out the window or go to the beach. You should wait until you see money lying in the corner and all you have to do is go over and pick it up. That’s how most investors should invest. The problem is we all think we need to jump around all the time and be jumping in and out and that’s not good.

We think we have to have investments. No, we don’t. If I said you could only have 25 investments in your whole lifetime or if there was some way to limit you to 25, you would be extremely careful. You wouldn’t be jumping around doing all sorts of strange things. Patience is what most investors need to learn. You don’t have to be doing things all the time. Most of the time the best thing is to do nothing. You just sit with what you have as an investment and let it ride or sit and wait until you see someone sitting in the corner.

Most of the time – unless you’re a short-term trader and great at it. I’ve known some spectacular short-term traders. But for most investors, unless you’re one of those guys, then you should just do nothing. Do nothing. If you’re an investor, do nothing except re-examine what you have, and if you’re not investing, just continue to look until you find something.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Diposting oleh Unknown 09.47 0 komentar

Are we out of the woods yet

Many economists have started to criticise the trillion dollar fiscal stimulus programs by the Obama administration. Hasn’t the American learned from the Subprime crisis when it all started during the 2001-2002 recession, the Americans cut rates and boosted public spending. This brought a bubble in the housing sector which causes serious consequences to the rest of the world.

Now, with the current recession, the Americans is going to pump in trillion of dollars to boost its GDP. And the consequences? More debt and bigger bubble!

The Americans are not alone. Most of the governments around the world are increasing on their fiscal budgets and bailing out troubled banks to help steer their economies out of the wood so as to gain popular votes from the people. “China is back in bubble land,” warned the Financial Times. According to Bill Bonner, in the first six months of this year, Chinese banks lent more than $1 trillion, or about four times the rate of 2007. This loosening of monetary policy by the Chinese Central Bank is bound to add more trouble to the world in the future.

Why? Because no one would like to bite the bullet and let the economy suffers like the 1929 Great Depression. So let’s face the consequences when the next bubble blows up!

Diposting oleh Unknown 00.46 0 komentar

Benjamin Graham’s Number

Any value investor should have heard of Benjamin Graham. He was the teacher of Warren Buffett at Columbia University and was known as the ‘Father of Value Investing’. Graham is famous for his stringent stock criteria to pick the undervalued stocks. His idea was to buy the liquid assets such as cash and its equivalent of a company at a discount which is known as the Net Current Asset Value (NCAV).

Here’s the calculation: Take the total current assets of a company, minus the total short term and long term debt of the company, the value times two-third.

Formula = (Current asset – Total Debt) x 2/3

This means that Graham is only willing to pay 2/3 of the net current assets of the company!

In layman term, you are actually looking for a campany with solid financial position that can pay off all its short term and long term debt in a short period of time.

To give you an idea how stringent the criteria is I have calculated some cash rich companies in our Bursa Malaysia. Many stocks are in negatives with this NCAV formula, however I managed to scout for a few that are with positive NCAV per share:

Genting Malaysia RM0.73
Maybulk RM1.01
Petronas Gas RM0.47

And Graham was only willing to pay 2/3 of the above values! You may say
that’s impossible! However, in modern days, we may improvise the formula and work out one that is suitable for your risk profile and your investment plan.


Happy investing,

Pauline Yong

Diposting oleh Unknown 16.15 0 komentar

Forex Trading and Gambling One and the Same

I often find it curious that people tend to react very negatively when forex trading is compared to gambling. Every time I talk to a proffesional trader about this matter we end up discussing how only "new traders" gamble and proffesionals do not gamble but "trade". What is so different between forex trading and gambling ? Through the following few paragraphs I will tell you my views on the subject and why I believe that forex trading is a form of gambling. I will also tell you how they are different and what the difference between investing in forex and going to Vegas really is. At the end of this article I hope you will understand my points of view and why forex cannot be considered anything but a type of gambling.

So what is gambling anyway ? Gambling is simply the act of betting on the outcome of a given event without any true certainty about its result. Sounds familiar ? Forex trading is merely the betting of a certain amount of money on the outcome of price movement without any absolute knowledge of where price will head. Therefore, in accordance to the definition of gambling, forex trading and any other form of speculative investing is merely gambling. But if it is gambling by definition then why do proffesional traders find this comparison offensive ?

The problem arises because people often relate gambling with casinos and in casinos you are gambling on a game which has an outcome which will be statistically unfavorable to you in the long term. Casinos make money because they are NOT gambling, they know that the outcome of a large sample of events will always be in favor of the house. In practice, a player in a casino floor may feel like he or she is "gambling" (which is true for small samples which can effectively be totally random) but statistics do favor the casinos within a large number of events. What this means is that if someone plays in a casino for an infinite period of time, the casino will end up with all the money. The casino always wins since it has a statistical edge on all the games played.

Many traders are offended by the comparison because they believe that people are telling them that they trade like they would play in a casino, to inevitably lose money in the long run, which is why new traders are so often compared with casino floor players.

In reality, forex trading is gambling, but it is a "game" in which the odds are not set against you in a mandatory way. Forex trading resembles sports betting a lot more. In sports, a bet is made for a time with a lot of information which can be used to determine the winner with statistical significance. For example, if a horse has won the past 10 races, then it is bound to also win the next rase. Betting for this horse will give you a statistically higher chance of winning than betting against other horses. However, the outcome is never known so it might happen that your horse loses. However, within a large given number of events, you can be an overall winner if you know enough about the facts that affect the outcome of the events.

Forex trading is very similar, if you know enough about the facts which determine the outcome of price movements then you can statistically profit from the market even though you may lose in several events due to the true outcome of any event being unknown. The more educated gamblers make money while the less educated gamblers which have no capacity to determine the probabilities of certain price movements against others end up losing their money. Since every dollar is sold for every dollar bought, the best gamblers get in and out with money when the others get in and out to give their money.

So in the end the matter is pretty simple. If you trade like you would gamble in Vegas, without any edge, you will lose, however if you gamble with intelligence and with analysis over the outcome of events you will, in the end, become a profitable trader.

If you would like to learn more about the systems I use to trade in the forex market for a living and how you too can design and trade your own automated long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 07.47 0 komentar

Targetting the JPY Crosses Why it is so Hard to Develop Long Term Profitable Systems for These Instruments

If you have been interested in system development and you have been following my achievements for a while you would have certainly noticed that I have never developed a system to target any JPY crosses. The reason why I havent done so is not because I havent tried but because the development of long term profitable systems for them has proved to be extremely hard. On todays post I want to share with you my experience with these instruments and why I have had a very hard time attempting to develop strategies that profit from these very volatile forex trading instruments. I will explain to you why price action based strategies simply do not seem to work for these pairs and what other alternative solutions I have put in practice to develop a long term profitable system that is able to diversify our trading with these JPY beasts.

The JPY crosses are a series of instruments in the forex market that pair the Japanese Yen with a non-USD currency. These instruments are most commonly EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY but other more exotic pairs like NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY are also available. These pairs have some very notable characteristics which set them apart from regular forex pairs like the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. What makes them so special is the extremely large daily volatility and their overall lack of liquidity (when compared to major pairs). Developing a system for these babies is no easy ride and I will just show you why this is the case.

System development is based on the finding of exploitable market inefficiencies. Price behaves in a certain way that allows you to enter a trade with a high probability of success under very diverse market conditions. Lack of liquidity introduces a blur to this image and therefore it becomes very hard to find inefficiencies because price is "all over the place" so to speak. Lack of liquidity makes different price patterns appear on very different market situations signaling many different things taking your mathematical expectancy away from positive territory. So if you try to trade a given candlestick pattern you find that the pattern sometimes leads to where you want to go and sometimes it doesnt - like it always happens - but the lack of liquidity increases the number of times it leads to where you dont want to go significantly, to the point where you lose all the edge you would have gained from it.

For this very reason, the development of price based strategies on the JPY crosses is often not a good idea since you are very vulnerable to the "blur" introduced by the general lack of liquidity of these instruments. Systems that have success on very varied currency pairs - like Teyacanani - simply fail to profit on JPY crosses due to the fact that their signals simply dont lead anywhere. After analyzing 10 years of price data for the EUR/JPY I have found that price action is extremely hard to predict due to the fact that lack of liquidity makes it follow a very random walk in the short and perhaps medium term. This is the exact effect you would expect from lack of liquidity since crowd behavior becomes less representative and more individual human behavior - which is just random - starts to show through the charts.

What is the solution then ? Since price action based strategies seemed to fail to bring positive results on these currency pairs for me, I decided to change into indicator based strategies that allowed me to remove the "noise" from the market more effectively. The idea here is that JPY crosses do follow crowd behavior in the long term so introducing a strategy that averages data and gives me an idea of where things are going would most likely prove more effective. This is in fact the case and indicator based strategies do show positive mathematical expectancy values with less effort. However, the fact that the currency pairs lack liquidity makes the eventual profitability of these strategies much lower than what can be achieved on the regular USD paired instruments.

In the end it becomes obvious that lack of liquidity complicates any mechanical profitability to a large extent since market inefficiencies become far more scarce and difficult to capture. Lack of liquidity makes the effect of smaller parties larger and therefore the movements are just more random overall. Crowd behavior becomes less significant and therefore we lose a significant edge that we are able to use on major currency pairs. Many of you may think that this "randomness" constitutes an inefficiency on its own but the fact is that it does not since you arent able to predict when it will appear with a statistical advantage. If you assume that JPY crosses are random and attempt to profit from their volatility you will fail when they trend and vice versa. The problem is not the character of the instruments but the fact that lack of liquidity does not allow us to have a positive statistical edge on most strategies.

Does this mean that we wont have any mechanical JPY-cross trading strategy ? No, it just means that it will be much harder to develop and probably profit and risk targets wont be as good as for regular systems based on more liquid currency pairs. As a matter of fact I am currently developing some strategies to address these JPY crosses. Hopefully I will be able to tackle this beast and - in the end - we will have some likely long term profitable systems for our JPY trading friends :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to design and develop your own trading systems with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 21.45 0 komentar

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Cyclone an unbiased review

As for the past two weeks, today Ill continue to focus on the review of another automated trading system. Todays post will be dedicated to the review of the forex cyclone expert advisor which was suggested to me by a customer who had previously purchased my automated trading ebook. As always, this review is written based on the evidence provided by the expert advisor creator and is no way biased as I get no reward of any kind for giving the EA either positive or negative feedback.

The website starts with a very bold claim from the authors saying he has "reeled in 986,928.17" USD from the forex market. Now, this guy seriously has to be jocking. I am pretty impressed as how naive and ignorant this expert advisor sellers think their customers really are to put such bold claims first thing in a webpage and thinking theyll just swallow the whole thing. The sellers makes this claims based in the fact that he has a year long backtesting results that shows these results. This is definitely not a valid proof on income ! This guy is actually lying to everybodys face as he did not "reel in" all those profits, he just happened to have a backtest with those numbers which is VERY DIFFERENT than an account with that money inside. These claims are just unproven and are in fact a very good example of how unethical expert advisor sellers can be in the forex automated trading market.

Now, as far as the backtesting statements go and their reliability I would have to say that from the TP and SL values I could say that the one minute interpolation errors should be small, however, the EA could still be trading with inside bar data which could make real live results differ from backtesting results considerably. But ok, the system seems to perform alright from 2007 to 2009 and I believe that backtesting could overestimate profits (a lot) and underestimate loses (a lot too) but the overall picture seems credible.

The real problem comes in when we consider the length of the backtest and the lack of live testing. First, we dont have any idea of why the creator did not backtest his system from 1999 if the system is so profitable and we also dont know why he does not have any live or forward testing statements if he really believes his or her system to be as profitable. I would have to say that these things are always what makes me extremely suspecious about a trading system. If the author fails to provide testing information which would be obviously provided for a profitable trading system, then it is obviously because said information does not help his outrageous claims.

This expert is considered of course, not worth buying and the author would have to provide us longer backtests and live testing information so that we can ensure that there is back live testing consistency and that the EA can actually be long term profitable. Also, a check of the word "proven" in the dictionary wouldnt hurt.

If you would like to learn more about my opinions about the reality of automated trading and how you can also me profitable with automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Diposting oleh Unknown 12.32 0 komentar