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Tampilkan postingan dengan label look. Tampilkan semua postingan

To Look or Not to Look Setting and Forgetting in Automated Trading

We all fear that moment when we open up our trading terminals to find out that some portion of our profits or even worse, our initial investment capital, has been wiped out. Looking into a trading account continuously is one of the hardest things to do when getting involved in automated trading and certainly the emotions and reactions that take place when we do so lead to many of the devastating consequences that make profitable automated trading a very hard thing to achieve for most new and inexperienced traders. For many people new to automatic trading execution the answer to this problem - in which looking into losing trades makes them lose control - is a simple "Id rather not look". On todays post I am going to discuss this issue a little bit and why you cannot expect to be successful just by "setting and forgetting" and "avoiding to look" when using algorithmic trading systems.

There is something very hard about looking into a losing account or an account with trades in open draw down that makes us want to forget about them or do something to make this stop. Definitely when people start to actively deal with their accounts they generally take very bad decisions that end up costing them far more capital. Inexperienced traders usually change systems upon draw downs, interfere with the trading of automated systems and get desperate and frustrated when things spend a lot of time going against them. However, given the knowledge that long term profitable systems are hard to trade because of this, many new traders simply decide to "forget" about the accounts and system to avoid intervening and dealing with the psychological aspects of trading.

This decision is absolutely logical and it is the easiest and most obvious answer to the above mentioned premise. If youre telling me that long term profitable systems are hard to trade because they have long and deep periods of draw down then Ill just trade the system and forget about it so that I do not interfere nor suffer from these draw down periods and their existence. Although this may sound good at first, this is a very dangerous road that often leads to as many losses as the first one.

In order to understand why this is the case we first need to see how people who are indeed successful with mechanical trading systems achieve this. Definitely it is not by not looking at the systems but my gathering knowledge, strength and confidence by doing the exact opposite. The difference between an experienced and an inexperienced trader is evident when you look at the ways in which they react to the exact same situation. While within a draw down an inexperienced trader would suffer from despair and fear (only avoidable by not looking at the account) the experienced trader can look into the account and see a temporary cycle which is just a pair of his or her regular business goals. If the account then goes onto a cycle which signals that it has become too risky to be traded the experienced trader will quickly realize this and eliminate the system from his or her portfolio while the other trader will trade the system to oblivion since he or she isnt even paying attention.

What I am trying to say here is therefore pretty simple : it is not about setting and forgetting and avoiding to look into your systems and accounts, it is about looking into them and understanding what they are doing and if what they are doing is part of what they are supposed to do. Certainly at first trading long term profitable systems will require a lot of self control and discipline from new traders but in the end this ability to look at the accounts, understand, expect and evaluate in a cold-headed manner is what distinguishes the few that do make it in this business from the big crowd of traders who fail at this endeavor.

My advice here is therefore quite straight, if you want to succeed at automated trading you should keep a close eye on all your live accounts and on their performance. When you feel emotions because of their profits/losses, turn them into understanding, learn all the ins and outs of your systems logic, its profit and draw down characteristics, what it is supposed to do and how it does it, only in this way will you be able to achieve success in this very hard business called automated forex trading.

If you would like to learn more about my experience with algorithmic trading strategies and how you too can receive a true education in automated trading please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)
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Does Hedging on the same currency pair Really Exist A Look at Position Holding in Forex Trading

One of the things I consider the funniest about forex traders is that they seem to have a strong opposition against the removal of "hedging" from their trading capacity. However few of them do realize that the traditional hedging we have seen where you buy and sell a given currency pair at the same time is merely and illusion and that in reality it doesnt exist or -for that matter- make any real sense. On todays post I want to talk about the concept of hedging, why it simply doesnt exist in reality and why any strategy that uses this concept can be implemented without its use. After reading this post you will understand better that hedging a currency pair by having open long and short positions at the same time is not possible in the real market and you ll see how you can actually understand what you are doing when you have this on your account and how it can be implemented within your strategy to have the exact same results without ever having more than one position opened per currency pair.

What is hedging after all ? In general it refers to the taking of opposite positions with a certain degree of correlation that offers some protection against side movements in the market. So for example going short EUR/USD and short USD/CHF is bound to guarantee some protection against variations in either currency pair since they are heavily and negatively correlated. However since the correlation is not 1 the actual effectiveness of this hedge depends on market conditions and - when correlation is temporarily lost - such hedges become extremely dangerous.

However, when people in the MT4 community refer to "hedging" they generally talk about having a long and short position opened at the same time on a currency pair. For example they open up a long on the EUR/USD at X price and then a short afterwards to cover up their loses or to "fix" some of the profit level they have achieved. Many traders who are not familiar with how the market works consider hedging absolutely vital for their success and the removal of this feature seems to be extremely unacceptable.

When we look close having a short and a long trade opened on the same pair is merely an illusion. What you are doing is buying and selling the same contract so if you were actually carrying out currency exchanges (of physical currency) you would have done the same exchange twice and ended up with what you started with (your ending net positioning is 0). It doesnt actually make sense if you think about it and the way it has been implemented in MT4 is practical in some ways but very misleading in others.

As a matter of fact, any hedging strategy can be implemented EXACTLY in the same way without ever having two positions opened in the market. For example if you bought USD/JPY at 85.54 then you want to enter a short position at 84.54 then exit the short and the long at 86.54 the same effect would be realized if you closed the long at 85.54 because closing the long is indeed what you would be doing in reality if you entered a short. The later point where you exit both the long and short is irrelevant since your net positioning from the open of the short is 0.

Case 1 ( Buy 85.54, Sell 84.54, Close both 86.54)

Long Result = 86.54-85.54 = 100 pip profit
Short Result = 84.54-86.54 = 200 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

Case 2 (Buy 85.54, Close 84.54)

Long Result = 85.54-84.54 = 100 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

So in summary it is now evident that the current "short and long hedging ability" in metatrader 4 is simply an illusion and that any strategy can be implemented which currently relies on this feature simply by taking into account the net positioning of the account. When shorts are entered they close longs and when longs are entered they close shorts. In the end this leads to the exact same effect as we would have had if we had simply opened all the short and long positions simultaneously since what matters is merely our net positioning in the market. This is the approach that really makes sense and falls in line with what would happen in a physicial currency exchange.

To sum it up, if you currently have a portfolio trading on the same instrument or if you are trading a system that opens longs and shorts on the same currency pair, dont worry about hedging as you can always implement your strategy using a net positioning approach, something we will all have to do once we move entirely towarsd metatrader 5.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code likely long term profitable systems using reliable trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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